- The week ahead will see focus on domestic and global macroeconomic data and corporate actions
- Monthly auto sales figures will influence stock-specific trading activity
- US-Iran tensions and Middle East developments will affect global crude oil prices
The week ahead promises intense action on D-Street as investors will be busy analyzing domestic and global macroeconomic data, primary market buzz, corporate action, and major global cues. Market participants will navigate the tide with caution amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions. The monthly auto sales figures will drive stock-specific action, while the US and Asian market buzz will dictate sector-specific movement. Corporate buzz straight from boardrooms will impact trading volumes in specific counters.
The US-Iran geopolitical conflict and Middle East developments will continue to impact the movement of crude oil prices. Trading activity of foreign investors would influence the overall market trend. "On the domestic front, first-quarter GDP data will be important factor for broader risk sentiment, offering greater clarity on the pace of domestic growth against the backdrop of elevated energy prices and an unresolved Middle East conflict that has disrupted global supply lines and contributed to higher commodity prices," said Ponmudi R, CEO - Enrich Money, an online trading and wealth tech firm.
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Markets on Home Turf
Domestic equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty 50 inched higher on Friday, but posted a third straight weekly loss, their longest falling streak in five months, on concerns over the new closing-auction mechanism. On Friday, the Nifty 50 rose 0.35% to 24,175.65 points, while the BSE Sensex added 0.43% to 77,264.51. The IT index jumped 3.5%, supported by upbeat quarterly results from US chipmaker Nvidia. For the week, Nifty and Sensex fell 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. India's broader small-and mid-caps rose 0.5% each, supported by earnings, lower crude prices and sustained domestic inflows.
Week Ahead: Five Key Triggers For Sensex, Nifty
India Q1 GDP Data, GST Collections, PMI Data
"The coming week is expected to remain highly eventful, with domestic GDP data and global economic releases likely to determine market direction. India's Q1 FY27 GDP data will be released on Aug. 31. Investors will also monitor India's August manufacturing and services PMI readings, GST collections, foreign exchange reserves and movement in the rupee," said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd. Besides, macroeconomic data announcements, auto sales numbers and trading activity of foreign investors would also guide movement in the market going ahead, according to analysts.
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Monthly Auto Sales
Leading automobile majors such as Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, Maruti Suzuki India, Mahindra & Mahindra Auto will release their August sales figures on Tuesday, Sept. 1, providing an early read on demand across passenger vehicles, two-wheelers and commercial vehicles. Market participants will also watch volume growth, model launches and the pace of recovery in different segments, while also looking for signs of improving consumer demand ahead of the upcoming festive season.
FPI Inflows
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) infused Rs 30,919 crore in Indian equities in August, extending their buying streak to a second straight month, amid improving corporate earnings, resilient economic activity, stable rupee and easing geopolitical concerns. The inflow follows Rs 20,200 crore invested in July, marking a sharp turnaround after four consecutive months of heavy selling. FPIs had withdrawn Rs 49,340 crore in June, Rs 32,963 crore in May, Rs 60,847 crore in April and a massive Rs 1.17 lakh crore in March. Prior to the selling streak, they had invested Rs 22,615 crore in February, according to CDSL.
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US Non-Farm Payrolls
US employment data will remain the most important trigger, with the August non-farm payrolls report scheduled for Sept. 4. "The outcome could significantly influence expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's September policy decision, the US dollar, Treasury yields and emerging-market fund flows," said Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking. US monetary policy is now the dominant global catalyst following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole, as per analysts.
US-Iran Tensions, Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices settled lower on Friday, also down for the week as traders evaluated hints about the US Federal Reserve Bank's inflation-fighting policy and rumors of a possible agreement on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures settled at $89.31 per barrel, down 39 cents, or 0.43%. West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at $83.40 a barrel, down 13 cents, or 0.16%. For the week Brent settled down by more than 5% and WTI by more than 4%.
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