FOMC Minutes, Pre-Budget Meetings, PMI Data, PhysicsWallah Listing, Nvidia Earnings—The Week Ahead

The week ahead promises intense action on D-Street packed with domestic events, primary market buzz, corporate action, and some major global cues, which will keep investors busy after the conclusion of the second quarter earnings and the high-stakes' Bihar assembly election results 2025.

D-Street will witness trading action this week as shares of leading ed-tech giant PhysicsWallah will debut on stock exchanges after its initial public offering and shares of several companies such as Asian Paints, Page Industries, Cochin Shipyard, and more will trade ex-dividend.

The progress on India-US trade deal negotiations are likely to influence movement in the equity market this week. Trading activity of foreign investors would also influence the overall trend. Notably, investor confidence has boosted after India's retail inflation cooled to 0.25% in Oct.

"Looking ahead, market direction will hinge on key macro triggers and progress on US–India trade negotiations. A prudent approach would be to focus on sectors with strong fundamentals, clear earnings visibility, and structural tailwinds—positioning portfolios for potential upgrades in H2FY26," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Ltd.

Domestic equity benchmarks snapped their two-week losing streak and ended the week on a strong note, with indices gaining on the resolution of the US government shutdown, aided by strong domestic fundamentals, stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings, and easing inflation.

The BSE Sensex rose 1,346.5 points, or 1.62%, while the NSE Nifty gained 417.75 points, or 1.64%. The India VIX index declined by 4.94% during the week and closed at 11.9375, indicating reduced volatility and a more stable market environment. The sectoral momentum was broad-based, led by gains in IT, pharma, healthcare and auto stocks.

On the domestic front, investors will track macroeconomic data as India's Purchasing Managers' Index data will be released this week. Rupee-dollar index, foreign exchange reserves, trade deficit data, and infrastructure output data will also be keenly eyed by market participants.

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman will resume her pre-budget meetings from Nov. 18 with industry stakeholders as part of preparations for the Union Budget 2026–27. The consultation process is expected to conclude on Nov. 26.

"With the earnings season concluding, market attention will shift toward broader domestic themes--including early signs of a demand pickup from the festive and wedding season, interest rate trajectory, and prospects of higher capital expenditure in the second half," said Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Two public issues will open for subscription this week while several others will close on their final days of bidding. In the mainboard segment, Excelsoft Technologies Ltd. IP will open for subscription on Nov. 19. In the SME segment, Gallard Steel Ltd. IPO will be up for bidding from Nov. 19.

D-Street participants keenly wait for the market debut of the ed-tech giant as shares of Alakh Pandey-led PhysicsWallah will get listed on Tuesday, Nov. 18. Shares of Tenneco Clean Air will list on Nov. 19, 2025. Also, shares of Fujiyama Power Systems IPO will list on both NSE and BSE on Nov. 20 while those of Capillary Technologies will list on Nov. 21, 2025.

Investors will focus on major dividend payouts from the likes of MRF Ltd, Ashok Leyland, Cochin Shipyard, Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd, Asian Paints, and others. NBCC (India), IRCTC, Sonata Software also have record dates lined up this week.

The most significant interim dividend announced this week comes from Page Industries Ltd., which is offering a substantial payout of Rs 125 per share with an ex-date of Nov. 19. Dividends are a way for companies to reward shareholders. Investors must be mindful of the ex-dividend date.

Global cues will dictate significant market direction this week as investors will track the minutes of US Federal Open Market Committee to get cues of the US central bank's interest rate cut plans. Market mood will also be shaped by key US economic releases, such as the US jobless claims and other reports which were held back due to the government shutdown.

"The ongoing volatility in AI-linked stocks will remain a key factor to watch, given its potential to influence the broader market sentiment," said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd. Notably, AI bellwether Nvidia the world's most valuable company by market cap, will declare its quarterly earnings report on Nov. 19.

This will likely create turbulence through global technology and AI stocks throughout the week with Nvidia being one of the biggest market catalysts in 2025. Wall Street is vary of concerns that the AI exuberance has driven up valuations to expensive levels with stocks being in an "AI bubble."

Nvidia shares have soared about 1,000% since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022. This includes a year-to-date gain of over 40% that made Nvidia the first company to surpass $5 trillion in market value last month. The stock's moves can sway equity indexes. Nvidia carries an 8% weight in the S&P 500 and a roughly 10% weight in the widely followed Nasdaq 100.