Silver Swing: MCX Rate Hits Rs 2.5 Lakh, Spot Up 6% On Week — Five Factors That Drove White Metal

Silver prices snapped their two-day losing streak in domestic and international markets to log a sharp rebound on the charts, defying the expected Street consensus of a near-term price correction after geopolitical risk premium lifted the safe haven appeal of the white metal.

Commodity investors weighed the ongoing geopolitical risks and trade deal negotiations between India and US against the ongoing rebalancing of commodity indexes and a stronger US dollar. Market participants have turned focus to a crucial US non-farm payrolls report due later in the day.

Spot silver gained 1.4% to $77.96 per ounce and was on track to log a more than 7% weekly rise. Spot silver hit an all-time high of $83.62 on Dec. 29, 2025. The white metal has recorded its strongest annual gain in 2025, soaring over 147% on supply-demand imbalance and investor appetite.

Back home, silver futures hit Rs 2.50 lakh per kilogram-mark on the multi commodity exchange (MCX). MCX silver futures, due for a March 5 expiry, opened at Rs 2,44,455 per kg against a previous close of Rs 2,43,324 to gain 3% and hit an intraday high of Rs 2,50, 250 per kg during the session so far. The contracts hit an intraday low of Rs 2 43,670 per kg earlier.

Kotak Securities eyes a key support level of $76.58 for spot silver and a resistance level of $84.41. MCX silver futures has a key support at Rs 2,45,207 per kg and key resistance at Rs 2,67,345 per kg, as of Jan. 9, 2026.

The precious metal logged a dramatic week after two straight sessions of massive intraday losses to a sharp rebound on Friday, at a time when analysts and global brokerages expected a continued slump in prices and a higher liquidity impact over gold.

However, silver defied the bearish expectations to truly emerge as a 'devil's volatile' metal against a slew of market triggers. From the commodity index rebalancing to supportive geopolitical risk premium, Here are five key factors that drove the white metal this week:

The annual Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing, designed to keep the index aligned with the current state of the global commodity market, begins this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index target weight is being reduced from 9.6% to 3.9%. Citi Research pegged ~$6.8–6.9 billion of rebalancing outflows for silver between Jan. 8–14  index reshuffle window.

The private bank predicted silver to log the largest liquidity impact from rebalancing outflows. Domestic brokerage Kotak Securities also said that the white metal remains ''particularly exposed amid elevated volatility''.

The US dollar has displayed strength for the last three sessions and hit a one-month high as markets braced for an approaching Supreme Court decision on President Donald Trump's use of emergency tariff powers.

A stronger dollar makes greenback-priced bullion more expensive for other currency holders. The stability and ongoing strength of the US currency has limited the upside momentum for the precious metal dimming the safe haven appeal of both gold and silver for investors.

Trump is considering to impose steep tariffs, as high as 500% on countries that are buying Russian oil. US Senator Lindsey Graham said the sanctions would give Trump leverage over major buyers such as China, India, Brazil, pressuring them to halt purchases of discounted Russian crude.

According to experts, the Russian crude oil orders are likely believed to be financing the war in Ukraine. However, investor's attention remains fixated on a possible Supreme Court ruling on Trump tariffs expected later today.

''If the Supreme court rule against the tariffs, concerns over an intensifying trade war could ease, it may potentially limit a further upside fot gold and silver prices in the near term,'' said Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities.

The US-Venezuela crisis lifted the safe haven appeal of the white metal earlier this week. US has also targeted oil ships in Venezuela to take control of the country's shipments and exports. Given the potential impact on key Russian energy customers, steep US tariffs could escalate US–China trade tensions, supporting the safe-haven demand for gold and silver.

Market participants will also keenly watch out for upcoming economic date in the US after the non-farm payroll data for further clues on monetary policy. Non-yielding assets such as gold and silver tend to perform well in low-interest-rate conditions and during periods of geopolitical or economic uncertainty.

According to Kotak Securities, investors will parse payrolls for clues on monetary policy, with expectations centered on a modest job growth of 60,000, a slight dip in unemployment to 4.5%, and two rate cuts priced this year. However, December FOMC minutes suggest officials remain divided on timing and scale of rate cuts.