Gold Hits Record High, Silver Scales 14-Year Peak—What Should You Bet On Amid Festive Cheer?

Gold Vs Silver: Precious metals hit record highs on Monday, Sept. 29, supported by a weaker US dollar and growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve is likely to continue with interest rate cuts later this year and surge in overall demand. The yellow metal rose to hit an all-time high, while silver breached the psychological mark of $45 on COMEX.

Gold prices surged above $3,800-an ounce for the first time, driven by rising Wall Street bets of US Fed rate cuts, while concerns over a possible US government shutdown bolstered the safe-haven appeal of the metal. Analysts noted that the rally showed no signs of pausing, with investors caught in a dilemma of whether to enter or book profits at elevated levels.

Spot gold jumped 1.6% to $3,816.79 per ounce, after hitting $3,819.59 earlier in the session. US gold futures for December delivery rose 1% to $3,846.60. The US dollar index fell 0.3% during the session, making greenback-priced bullion less expensive for overseas buyers.

Back home as well, the yellow metal surged to fresh lifetime highs, with MCX price rising Rs 1,100 to Rs 1,15,000. The December contract for gold futures also advanced Rs 1,034 to hit a record Rs 1,15,925 per 10 grams.

Spot silver rose 2.1% to $46.94 per ounce, hitting a more than 14-year high, while platinum climbed 2.5% to $1,606.77, a 12-year high, and palladium gained 0.7% to $1,279.15. Silver futures also witnessed robust gains.

The white metal for December delivery jumped Rs 2,290 or 1.61%, to hit an all-time high of Rs 1,44,179 per kg. The March 2026 contract for silver futures surged by Rs 2,559, or 1.79%, to a fresh peak of Rs 1,45,817 per kg on the MCX.

Last week, gold futures rallied by Rs 4,188, or 3.77 per cent, to close at Rs 1,14,891 per 10 grams on Friday. In the previous week, silver futures had surged by Rs 12,051, or 9.28 per cent, to close at Rs 1,41,889 per kg.

On a year-to-date basis, gold is up 45%, while the white metal has rallied 58% so far this year. The key triggers for gold's rally today include a weaker greenback, US Federal shutdown risk, and expectations of weak US jobs report.

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index matched expectations, reinforcing bets on further Fed rate cuts, with traders assigning a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in October and a 65% probability for December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Adding to the global uncertainty, US President Donald Trump last week announced a new round of tariffs on imported drugs, trucks, and furniture, effective Oct. 1, clouding the economic outlook further. According to analysts, the key tailwinds for the yellow metal this year are as follows:

• Robust ETF inflows

• Resumption of interest rate-cuts by US Fed

• Lingering geopolitical and tariff uncertainty

• Central banks ramp up buying

Gold benefits from lower interest rates and thrives during geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Many brokerages have turned bullish on the rally in gold prices. Coming to the white metal's rally, the key tailwinds include:

• Industrial demand for electronics

• Growing EV demand, solar boom

• Fifth year of supply deficits for silver.

Global brokerages have turned bullish on the precious metals. Morgan Stanley has pegged an year-end target of $3,800 for gold and $40.9 for silver, from the current levels. Deutsche Bank has pegged a 2026-target of $4,000 for the yellow metal and $45 for the white. Some analysts expect the rally to sustain, while some have penciled in a pullback.

Silver, which carries safe-haven and industrial appeal, has outperformed several asset classes in 2025. Axis Mutual Fund expects silver to stay firm in the near term, supported by demand and currency-led price strength in India. However, any recovery in rupee or shift in interest rate trends could trigger short-term corrections.

Market experts noted that the interplay of monetary easing expectations, geopolitical tensions, and trade-related risks is expected to keep bullion prices elevated in the near term. Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, believes the outlook remains bullish for gold with a trading range of Rs 1,13,500–Rs 1,16,500.

Trivedi added that traders are pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut in Oct. and about a 65% probability of an additional move in Dec. Manav Modi, Analyst – Precious Metal-Research, Motilal Oswal, said reports regarding US shutdown led to strong safe haven buying. If the debt bill is not passed before Oct. 1, it could push bullion further.

"Physical gold demand in China weakened last week, with discounts hitting multi-year lows, while steady buying persisted in other major Asian hubs despite the high prices in anticipation of further gains," added Modi.

According to Bloomberg, gold prices are on track to close out a third consecutive quarterly gain next week, with holdings in bullion-backed ETFs at the highest since 2022. Banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG have said they expect the rally to extend.