The Return Of Hard Assets And Hard Lessons — Talking Point This Week

Dear readers,

Happy Friday+2! It took a phone call between Modi and Trump, a truce in Gaza, and a fintech fair in Mumbai to remind us that India’s local stories now unfold on global stages. The Israel and Hamas truce took centre stage, as did Mumbai, with all the key developments this week happening in the city. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump on Thursday held a telephonic conversation to review the progress in the bilateral trade talks between the two countries and the peace plan floated by Washington to end the Israel-Hamas war. The much-discussed Nobel Peace Prize was announced on Friday. Venezuela’s María Corina Machado claimed the Nobel Peace Prize — the 20th woman to do so, and a reminder that politics still trails principle. Mumbai saw the Global Fintech Festival, the launch of the Navi Mumbai International Airport and the Metro Line 3, which saw over 1.5 lakh commuters on the first full day of operations. TCS announced its quarterly results and its commentary, which were better than estimates, but the attrition rates were higher, and the new investment in data centres might be RoE dilutive, with JP Morgan calling the AI colocation business an unrelated distraction. Here are the top talking points.

Israel and Hamas have agreed to terms for the release of all hostages held by the Palestinian militant group in Gaza, a major breakthrough in the US- and Qatari-brokered negotiations to end their two-year war. After Trump posted on Truth Social, Israel, Hamas and Qatar all subsequently confirmed a hostage-release deal had been reached. The deal is expected to see Hamas free the roughly 20 people taken during the October 2023 attacks who are still alive, alongside the remains of more than two dozen who died in captivity. Israel would release almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners along with the troop movement, while aid to Gaza will be resumed. It is a developing story but arguably the biggest newsmaker of last week.

Gold’s back in vogue. Up 10% in a month and 50% over a year, it’s now flirting with $4000 an ounce—a comeback decades in the making, when prices tripled amid oil crises and high inflation. Keep in mind, hard assets gained en masse, with silver topping the $50-per-ounce mark, aluminium crossing three-year highs, and zinc crossing the $3000-per-tonne mark. But back to gold – the metal has repeatedly hit record highs throughout 2025, and over the past five years, prices have more than doubled (+108.5%), building on a 20-year bull run where they've risen over 730% from around $480 per ounce in 2005. Adjusted for inflation, today's prices echo peaks from the early 1980s (around $2,500 in today's dollars during the 1980 spike) but fall short of the all-time inflation-adjusted high of about $3,000 in 1980 equivalent. Supply and demand dynamics are in favour too, with mining output having stagnated (new discoveries are rare and costly), while demand from jewellery, tech, and ETFs has surged. Goldman Sachs forecasts a price of $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, citing persistent ETF inflows and central bank purchases. This projection isn't just speculative hype; it's a response to a "perfect storm" of global risks and policy shifts!

The Global Fintech Fest (GFF) 2025, held from Oct. 7-9 in Mumbai, drew over 1,00,000 delegates from more than 100 countries under the theme "Empowering Finance for a Better World – Powered by AI: Augmented Intelligence | Innovation | Inclusion." Key highlights included keynote addresses by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra—who outlined five principles for fintechs emphasising inclusion, innovation, trust, customer focus, and global-local strategies—and SEBI Chairperson Tuhin Kanta Pandey. The event spotlighted AI's transformative role through zones like the Bharat AI Experience Zone (in partnership with NPCI and Nvidia), hackathons, investment pitches, the prestigious Global Fintech Awards, and tracks on digital payments, cybersecurity, financial inclusion, and climate finance, fostering collaborations among 500+ investors, 600+ product showcases, and 15+ report launches.

A survey conducted by the Securities and Exchange Board of India and market research firm Kantar noted that nearly 79% of Gen-Z households which invest displayed risk-averse behaviour, looking to ensure capital conservation rather than take on more equity risk. As such, only 9.5% of Indian households, or 3.2 crore families, have invested or are currently invested in equity products. Of this, only 60% are active investors, with the rest being dormant. India currently has 33.7 crore families. Of the 90.5% remaining households in India, 53.5% are those aware of financial products but remain non-investors. Over 37% of households are unaware of equity market products and are thus non-investors.

After spending an hour dissecting my conversation with Manish Chokhani and Ramesh Damani, these were some key things that I thought about deeply. They helped me sharpen my focus on multiple facets of business journalism and investing. The gist is that with central banks now holding more gold than US treasuries for the first time in history, this isn't just a data point but truly a seismic indicator of confidence erosion in the dollar-centric system. Gold's journey from $250 in 2002 to current levels, outperforming many markets without generating cash flows, tells the story of a world seeking store-of-value alternatives. As Damani and Chokhani said, the old investing playbooks no longer work. The world is shifting—not incrementally, but fundamentally. The entrepreneurs building for the next decade must think in terms of IP ownership, global disruption awareness, and domestic market depth simultaneously. The question isn't whether change is coming—it's whether we're positioning for the world that's emerging, not the one that's disappearing!

As we end, an indication of India's art market explosion, which I picked up from an international publication. Apparently, a painting by MF Husain sold for $13.8 million in March 2025 – a record for modern Indian art. Average auction lot prices rose from $110,000 in 2022 to $464,000 in 2025, with domestic buyers driving the growth rather than international speculation. This represents a fundamental shift from the 2006-07 speculative bubble. Works by FN Souza that sold for 3,000 pounds in 2002 now carry estimates of 800,000-1.5 million pounds.

Have a great festive buildup, everyone.