Can Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Become The 'X' Factor In Bihar?

Former election strategist Prashant Kishor has thrown his hat in Bihar’s electoral ring and grabbed a lot of eyeballs. He is ranked as third preferred CM candidate across surveys and is attracting youth, educated and middle class who see Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) with new hope. Can he force an upset and win Bihar or will he emerge as kingmaker or will just play the role of spoiler? 

Bihar, which has seen social justice revolution under Laloo Prasad Yadav and significant development under Nitish Kumar, still lags at the bottom of HDI indicators and per capita income.

Prashant claims to stop migration, improve health and education facilities, create jobs and bring back the old civilizational glory of Bihar. He is making serious corruption allegations against top NDA leaders exposing the hidden underbelly of Bihar politics. 

Prashant has announced that if elected, the party would end prohibition of liquor in the state and use the earnings to improve the education sector. He claims to have covered 60% of villages in Bihar through his padyatra in the last two years.

However, he too is unsure of JSP’s performance. Earlier, he used to claim JSP will form the government but now says, JSP will be either arsh pe ya farsh pe. 

Bihar is an electorally very competitive state with a plethora of parties largely divided into two blocks — NDA and INDIA. NDA comprises Nitish Kumar’s JDU, BJP, Chirag Paswan’s LJP, Jiten Ram Manjhi’s HAM, Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Manch. INDIA bloc comprises Laloo Prasad Yadav’s RJD, Congress, Mukesh Sahni’s VIP, Left Parties CPI, CPM and CPI(ML), JMM and LJP faction headed by Chirag's uncle. Then there are smaller parties and independents like AIMIM, BSP, and others. 

Others have always had around 20% vote share in Bihar, emerging as an unofficial third-front of-sorts. The best performance of 'Others' was in 2005 elections, when two elections were held one in March which threw a hung verdict and then again in October, where NDA emerged as victorious. Others bagged 20-plus seats in both polls. Their tally fell to eight in the 2010 and 2020 state elections. Their vote share has been in the range of 18%-27%.

Others are largely seen as vote cutters, not able to win many seats on their own, but potent enough to damage the prospects of main parties. In 2020, AIMIM surprisingly won five Muslim community influenced seats, damaging the prospect of MGB.

NDA won 125 and MGB 110 seats in a house with a simple majority of 122. LJP contested separately rebelling against JDU and damaged prospects in 73 seats, 40 NDA, 32 MGB, Others one, scoring more votes than victory margin on these seats.

JSP could consolidate votes of “Others” and inflict maximum damage on them as it offers an institutional framework to these scattered non-NDA, non-MGB voters. He is damaging Tejashwi's youth appeal, highlighting his low education status and top leadership of NDA raising corruption charges.

In Nov. 2024 by-polls, four seats were held. MGB had won three and NDA got one in 2020. JSP made an impressive debut, bagging 10% vote share however, splitting the opposition vote, leading to NDA sweeping the by-polls 4-0. NDA and JSP gained 9% and 10% respectively at the expense of Others and MGB, which lost similar support. However, JSP lost deposit in three of the four seats.

An analysis of vote shares in the four seats show JSP gaining largely at the expense of MGB as shown in the chart. 

Caste is 'cast in stone' in Bihar. Prashant is a Brahmin, the last time the state saw a Brahmin CM was Jagannath Mishra of Congress in 1989. In the post-Mandal era, we have only seen CMs from the OBC community in Bihar.

Majority of Non Yadav OBCs, Upper Caste, Dalits and Mahadalits back the NDA due to Nitish, BJP, Manjhi and Paswan respectively. Yadavs and Muslims accounting for 32% of population, are ardent voters of INDIA due to Laloo Yadav’s hold among the communities.

It’s going to be very difficult for Prashant to make a mark in this scenario so early in Jan Suraaj’s lifecycle in 2025 without having support from a big caste group. He is attempting to convert a caste-based election into class-based, highlighting the lack of development and Bihar’s poor state in the last 35 years under Nitish and Laloo, which is difficult in a caste ridden society. 

He is working very hard, and we have seen padyatras create buzz and hype as well as success, like in the past for Chandrasekhar and recently, Rahul Gandhi. He senses an opportunity as JDU could fade into oblivion after Nitish retires. JDU’s vote bank, leaders and cadre could be there for the taking. 

In VoteVibe’s Bihar Tracker Volume 3, we asked the question: “What role do you think Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj party will play in the Bihar elections?” More than half consider his party as vote cutter, an equal 8%-10% predict poor performance for the party as well as PK becoming CM. 16% consider he can become kingmaker. 

In a highly caste ridden society, Prashant, a Brahmin, hopes to bring fundamental changes in Bihar, aiming to make development the most important issue in elections. The strategist, fighting the biggest battle of his life, could face severe challenges in his new avatar. 

Many critics and opposition parties allege that he is hand-in-glove with the BJP, and is contesting polls with the sole aim of splitting the opposition vote, even labeling him the B-Team of BJP. While Prashant is focusing on the Gandhian philosophy, political parties question his funding. 

Can a strategist, a backroom operator, who is used to getting votes for politicians and political parties, get votes in his own name in Bihar? PK has swung 2%-3% vote share in favour of clients in his successful campaigns, however, these parties already have a sizeable base vote, which JSP lacks at the moment. His success now depends upon ability to draw winnable candidates in his fold.