The numbers tell a bruising story for Bihar’s main opposition. The Tejashwi Yadav-led Rashtriya Janata Dal, which fielded candidates in 143 seats, is ahead in only 27. If these trends hold, the party that emerged as the single largest in the 2020 assembly elections is staring at a dramatic slide, with its tally effectively halved.
This is shaping up to be RJD’s second-worst performance in a Bihar election. Its earlier low came in 2005, when Nitish Kumar swept to power on a wave of NDA support, ending years of RJD rule under Rabri Devi. Back then, RJD still managed 55 seats despite sharp anti-incumbency.
Tejashwi's vote count in Raghopur has see-sawed multiple times through the day, trailing Satish Kumar by nearly 5,000 votes as of 3:00 p.m. The nail-biting contest has left audiences puzzled if ministerial candidate Yadav will be able to regain the bastion.
Two decades and Nitish Kumar’s many political pivots later, history appears to be repeating itself. The JD(U) and BJP, reunited once again, are racing far ahead. As of 1:45 pm, the alliance is leading in 201 of 243 seats, putting the NDA firmly on course to return to power.
If this trajectory continues, Tejashwi Yadav, now the face of the party founded by his father Lalu Prasad Yadav in 1997, will have presided over its most significant rout.
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RJD's Silver Lining
In the middle of the gloom, one statistic stands out. The RJD, at the time of publishing, commands the highest vote share among all parties at 22.8% versus 19.8% in 2020. This suggests the party has secured votes but failed to translate it into victories.
Counting is still underway in Bihar, and late shifts remain possible. However, for now, the picture is stark: the RJD is trailing badly, while the NDA looks set to reclaim Bihar with ease.