ICC Women's World Cup 2025 Semifinals: India Or New Zealand, Which Team Has Better Chances To Qualify

India’s hopes of reaching the ICC Women’s World Cup 2025 semi-finals are hanging by a thread following a disappointing loss to England on Sunday, Oct. 19. They made a promising start to the tournament with two wins on the trot. But after that, the Indian women’s cricket team suffered three consecutive defeats, making their semifinal journey far from certain.

India could still look forward to a better chance in the race to the semi-finals with two remaining fixtures. They take on New Zealand on Oct. 23 and Bangladesh on Oct. 26. Winning both these matches would take India to eight points, securing a semi-final spot regardless of other results.

Even if India win only one of the two remaining matches, they would finish on six points. This could still be sufficient to reach the semi-finals, provided their net run rate (NRR) stays ahead of New Zealand, who are the only other realistic contenders for qualification. Currently, India hold an advantage over New Zealand in net run rate, giving them a slight edge heading into the crucial fixture.

The upcoming encounter with New Zealand is crucial. A defeat against the Kiwis would leave India’s hopes dependent on how other results unfold, particularly New Zealand’s last match against England on Oct. 26. With group standings tightly packed, net run rate could ultimately decide which team progresses.

On Oct. 19, chasing England’s total of 289, India fought valiantly. Smriti Mandhana scored a fluent 88, Harmanpreet Kaur added 70 and Deepti Sharma made 50, yet India fell just short at 284 for 6 in their allotted 50 overs. This defeat confirmed England as the third team to secure a semi-final spot, joining Australia and South Africa. India now sit at the fourth spot on the points table with four points.

Australia Women (Q):

Played 5 | Won 4 | Lost 0 | NR 1 | Points 9 | NRR 1.818

England Women (Q):

Played 5 | Won 4 | Lost 0 | NR 1 | Points 9 | NRR 1.49

South Africa Women (Q):

Played 5 | Won 4 | Lost 1 | NR 0 | Points 8 | NRR -0.44

India Women:

Played 5 | Won 2 | Lost 3 | NR 0 | Points 4 | NRR 0.526

New Zealand Women:

Played 5 | Won 1 | Lost 2 | NR 2 | Points 4 | NRR -0.245

Bangladesh Women:

Played 5 | Won 1 | Lost 4 | NR 0 | Points 2 | NRR -0.676

Sri Lanka Women:

Played 5 | Won 0 | Lost 3 | NR 2 | Points 2 | NRR -1.564

Pakistan Women:

Played 5 | Won 0 | Lost 3 | NR 2 | Points 2 | NRR -1.887