Scenario Breakdown: Who Qualifies? India, New Zealand, And Sri Lanka's Road To The World Cup Semi-Finals
The match between India and New Zealand on Thursday, October 23, will be more or less like a quarter-final, with the winning team standing the best chance to qualify for the semis.
With the ICC Women's Cricket World Cup 2025 heading into the final stretch of the group stage, the fight for the last semi-final berth is far from over. Australia, England and South Africa have booked their places in the knockout stages already. But India, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka are still locked in a battle for the remaining spot.
The match between India and New Zealand on Thursday, October 23, will be crucial in deciding who makes it to the semi-finals.
Women’s World Cup 2025 Semi-Final: Qualifying Scenarios
Here are the possible scenarios:
India: 4th in the points table with 4 points and a Net Run Rate (NRR) of +0.526
India can make the semis with victories in both of their remaining games against Bangladesh and New Zealand. That will take them to eight points.
A win against New Zealand would also see them through, no matter what happens against Bangladesh. If India wins against New Zealand but loses to Bangladesh, they will finish with six points. Then, with three wins, India will hold the tie-break advantage over New Zealand and Sri Lanka based on tournament rules.
But if India lose to New Zealand and then defeats Bangladesh, they will be relying on England beating New Zealand to sneak into the semi-finals.
Losing both matches will knock India out of the tournament.
New Zealand: 5th in the points table with 4 points and a NRR of -0.245
If New Zealand win both their remaining fixtures against India and England, they will be on eight points and secure a place in the semi-finals. However, if New Zealand beat India and lose to England, they will rely on Bangladesh defeating India and maintaining a higher net run rate than Sri Lanka. Alternatively, Pakistan’s victory over Sri Lanka could also see the Kiwis advance to the semi-finals.
Sri Lanka: 6th in the points table with 4 points, and a NRR of -1.035
Sri Lanka’s path to the semi-finals is the most challenging. They must beat Pakistan in their final group match to stay in contention for the semi-finals. They will also need India to lose both their remaining games, New Zealand to be beaten by England, and their net run rate to surpass that of the Kiwis.
Women’s World Cup 2025: Remaining Matches
October 22: Australia Women vs England Women
October 23: India Women vs New Zealand Women
October 24: Sri Lanka Women vs Pakistan Women
October 25: Australia Women vs South Africa Women
October 26: England Women vs New Zealand Women, India Women vs Bangladesh Women
Women’s World Cup 2025: Semi-Final And Final Dates
The 1st Semi-Finals will take place on October 29, whereas the 2nd semis will take place on October 30.
The final of the ICC Women's World Cup 2025 will be held on Sunday, November 2.
