2025 Rewind: A Defining 'Moment' With Multiple Contrasts At Play

I call 2025 a moment, not a period. When one looks back at this century, 2025 may stand out as one of its defining years, even more than 2020, the Covid year. In a century-long frame, a single year can be a moment.

It may also be called a Trump year. The US President reshaped how countries conduct business and manage relationships. India’s external affairs minister S Jaishankar captured this shift when he said countries now choose partners based on political ideology rather than economic interest. This trend sharpened as Donald Trump dismantled 25 years of India-US engagement and made India the highest-tariffed nation for the US. His presidency emerged as a defining moment for future economic and business decisions, though not for positive reasons.

One can argue with near certainty that 2025 was a year of contrasts. While Russia dominated conflict-related headlines before 2025, Donald Trump’s presidency drove news through a series of contrasting decisions. If DeepSeek opened the year as a major headline-maker, Australia’s government ban on social media for a specific age group closed it with equal impact.

If US Federal Reserve decisions and Trump’s attacks on Jerome Powell shaped much of the year’s debate, the Bank of Japan’s move became the most discussed central banking decision toward the end. The year repeatedly swung between contrasts.

The word of the year was “tariff”. Donald Trump marked his presence at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, even as DeepSeek drew attention for advances by a Chinese technology firm. Gaza ceasefire talks made news, but DeepSeek dominated the conversation.

India’s Union Budget followed, with tax changes that shifted focus toward consumption from capital expenditure. Another major moment came with the treatment of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, an event broadcast globally.

March brought China stimulus measures and record sales by BYD, but April 2 stood out with the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements. Those announcements altered the global economic path.

In May, Warren Buffett said at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting that he would not attend future AGMs. India and Pakistan also clashed. Even so, tariffs remained the dominant global headline.

The end of the Trump-Elon Musk relationship, China’s use of rare earths, the Israel-Iran conflict and Ed Sheeran’s release of “Sapphire” did not displace tariffs from the top of the news agenda. From India’s perspective, the performance of the armed forces in May and the central bank’s actions in June drew attention and lifted sentiment.

Inflation in India fell sharply, while earnings for the April-June quarter, reported in July, remained subdued. Donald Trump then imposed 50% tariffs on India, a move that surprised markets.

India responded diplomatically. In August, it announced GST changes to counter pessimism around an unresolved trade deal. These changes are expected to support consumer confidence through FY26 and much of FY27. The year also marked a personal milestone, with comedian Zakir Khan becoming the first Indian to stage a Hindi comedy show at Madison Square Garden.

September brought signs of easing ties between India and China. It also saw Indians boycott the India-Pakistan cricket match in solidarity with the armed forces. The GST cuts took effect from September 22, triggering a consumption pickup.

That shift may have contributed to better-than-expected earnings commentary for the second half of the year. Sport delivered a defining moment. After India’s T20 World Cup win and D Gukesh’s World Chess Championship title in 2024, the Indian women’s cricket team won the World Cup in November. The celebrations united the country.

The entertainment sector closed the year with contrast. The Gujarati devotional film “Laalo” earned more than Rs 100 crore on a production cost of Rs 50 lakh, even as much of Indian cinema struggled.

As Christmas and the New Year approach, hopes rest on 2026 bringing a contrast to 2025, with greater policy clarity, steadier flows, predictable business conditions and improved investor returns.

I will spend some time travelling and reading about the rise of Korean pop culture. May the year-end be calm, and may 2026 arrive without contrasts.