Nifty Records Narrowest Daily Range Ahead Of Weekly Expiry — What It Means For Traders

The benchmark Nifty 50 index opened with a gap-down on Monday. However, after the initial dip, there was no major follow-up selling, and prices gradually recovered through the session. Importantly, the index protected both the first-hour low and Friday’s session low (on a closing basis) — precisely as anticipated in the previous analysis. Interestingly, on a closing basis, it also managed to defend the 25,220 level despite a sharp rise in the India VIX, the volatility gauge.

On the daily chart, the index formed a small-bodied green candle with an exceptionally narrow trading range i.e. difference between the high and low was just 115 points, marking the tightest daily range since Sept. 17, 2025. What makes this setup unusual is that, even as the India VIX surged by about 9%, the daily range contracted to its lowest level in nearly a month. Typically, when volatility spikes, price swings widen — yet that relationship broke down in this session.

That said, periods of contraction are usually followed by expansion. Hence, the formation of the narrowest daily range since mid-September suggests a likely expansion in range. With Tuesday, Oct. 14, marking the Nifty’s weekly expiry, heightened volatility could well define the session.

From a pattern perspective, the index continues to oscillate within a long-standing symmetrical triangle formation bounded by converging trendlines. Historically, such setups often precede strong directional moves once a breakout occurs. The Nifty also remains comfortably above all key moving averages — the 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-DMA — reaffirming its underlying bullish tone.

On the hourly chart, the index has been forming higher lows and closed near the day’s high, almost filling the opening gap (missing it by just nine points) — a clear sign of intraday strength. No notable selling pressure was observed, and traders largely adopted a wait-and-watch stance as open interest remained flat. As mentioned earlier, as long as the index trades above Friday’s high, the bias stays positive. On the upside, 25,400 acts as the immediate resistance.

Overall, the Nifty must move decisively beyond the recent two-day range of 25,152–25,330 for a trending move to emerge. Given the narrowest range in weeks and the surge in VIX, volatility is likely to take centre stage in the upcoming session.