Will Venezuelan Crisis Weigh On D-Street? Aditya Shah Bullish For Long-Term, Picks IT As 'Contra Bet'

The Indian stock market sentiment is currently influenced by uncertainties surrounding the Venezuela-US crisis and Russian oil imports, coupled with anticipations regarding the upcoming Q3FY26 results. Most analysts expect the market to remain range-bound in the near-term with mixed optimism regarding the US-India deal uncertainty and Q3 earnings growth.

In the current market scenario, Aditya Shah, Founder, Hercules Advisors said in an exclusive interaction with NDTV Profit on Jan. 7, that he has always been positive on the Indian market. According to him, the Venezuelan crisis and India-US trade deal are only short-term concerns.

Shah believes that the market will do well in long-term basis and maintains a bullish view for blue-chips. ''There's nothing to worry about. Domestic facing economy stocks and banking stocks have reported solid set of numbers. Capital goods and chemical sector are places to concentrate,'' he said.

'Short-term ups and downs are always there. Nifty 50 should clock in at about 5-10% earnings growth. Businesses having exposure to the US will be key to watch out for. I expect and small-and midcaps on a selective basis, to do exceptionally well,'' Shah told NDTV Profit.

Shah notes that the systemic loan growth is 10-15% which is very healthy for the entire system. He expects a steady earnings growth, with 5-10% for Nifty 50 companies and 10-15% for small-and midcaps. Overall, he eyes the market momentum to be steady and ''not exceptional''.

Shah has a contra view on the Venezuelan crisis. ''It is really positive for market, as good quality oil over the next 3-5 years will be available in market which will keep crude prices in check. For an economy like India which is crude-import dependent, so it is very positive for us,'' he said.

In 2026, a lot depends on how the India-US trade deal moves. ''Not from the earnings perspective, but from a market sentiment perspective. If the deal is cracked very quickly, the market will do exceptionally well.'' he said.

''If the deal takes a lot of time, the market will be sideways. The year will depend on geopolitics and on that basis, stock prices will move. But, from a stock pickers perspective, one needs to be very stock specific,'' said Shah.

''A lot of stocks are undergoing massive corrections and those are the real opportunities to buy. I have a steady view for year, but the key upside will be the if the India-US trade deal is sealed and finally opens up,'' he said.

Shah claims that IT is a contra pick for him, as of now. The IT sector has bottomed out. If the India-US trade deal picks up, IT will also rebound. If not, I don't see any meaningful correction in the stocks. Some stocks have extremely high valuations, for example, Trent - which reported an 18% growth. In that regard, Shah said that its valuations were ''extremely aggressive'' so, for such stocks, one can expect a bit of time correction.

Shah's top sectoral bet is private banks. ''Banks continue to do very well. Loan growth that many banks have reported are exceptionally well. For example, HDFC Bank reported about a 10-11% loan growth. Kotak Mahindra bank reported a 14-15% growth,'' explained Shah.

''So, at the top will be private sector banks, followed by PSU banks like SBI which has done very well. Then, one can also look at AMCs they will also do very well on financialisation of savings,'' he said. One can also look at the consumer sector where stocks like ITC continue to have a correction on the back of rumours of additional tax getting imposed on cigarettes.

According to him, stocks such as Ahluwalia Contracts will do well as the government continues to invest in the infrastructure side of market. ''A lot of these stocks have undergone a time correction, so investors need to take a call on a sector-by-sector basis and take it from there,'' he added.