Crude May Dip Below $50 By Year-End Due To Venezuela Crisis, Says Peter McGuire

International crude oil prices could remain under sustained pressure through 2026, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) potentially sliding in the near term amid the unfolding Venezuela crisis, according to Peter McGuire, CEO of Trading.com Australia. He added that crude could even fall below $50 a barrel by the end of the year if current structural headwinds persist.

WTI fell to around $56 a barrel after US President Donald Trump said Venezuela would hand over as many as 50 million barrels of what he described as “high-quality, sanctioned oil” to the US, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright tasked with executing the plan immediately.

McGuire said crude markets are already exhibiting signs of structural weakness, noting that prices have seen a washout of over 20% from earlier levels. He expects this pressure to continue through the first and second quarters of the year. In the near term, he is watching the $52–53 per barrel zone closely for WTI. On the brighter side he said it can be seen around $56.

“I have a feeling that crude will be below $50 by the end of the year,” McGuire said, while cautioning that energy markets remain vulnerable to sudden geopolitical shifts.

He pointed out that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is gradually moving closer to some form of resolution, and a complete ceasefire could strip out a portion of the war premium currently embedded in oil prices. Such a development could knock another $2–3 off crude prices, though the situation remains fluid.

McGuire also flagged potential volatility from trade tariffs and said currency movements, particularly the US dollar, would be a key variable to watch as markets adjust to changing supply dynamics.

Beyond crude, McGuire highlighted strength across other commodities. Copper has rallied sharply, rising around 20% since late November, and he expects prices to test the $14,000 level by the end of the month, with a broader range of $14,000–$15,000 over the first two quarters supported by heightened volatility.

Silver, meanwhile, could see sharp upside moves alongside increased swings. McGuire expects prices to reach $90–95 by the end of the month, with the potential to approach $100 in the first quarter. However, he warned that the rally is unlikely to be linear, with sharp pullbacks of 6–8% in a single day possible before renewed upward momentum.