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Nirmal Bang Report
Our agrochemical coverage stocks are likely to see a mixed trend in Q4 FY23 earnings. Revenue/Ebitda growth and margin expansion may bless some while eluding others. India-focused agrochem stocks may see tempered volume as Rabi sales were not up to expectations in Q4 FY23 as per channel checks.
In terms of growth in profit after tax, PI Industries Ltd. will lead our coverage universe with 55.8% YoY growth, while small cap custom synthesis manufacturing peer Anupam Rasayan India Ltd. will be a distant second with 11% YoY growth followed by large cap leader UPL Ltd. with under 1% YoY growth.
The rest of the mid cap pack will show a YoY decline in PAT. Soda ash company Tata Chemicals Ltd. is likely to be the worst performer in our coverage universe with 9% YoY decline in PAT. Key lead indicators such as 3.3% YoY growth in Rabi crop area, healthy moisture levels/water storage levels and new launches are positive for Q4 FY23/H2 FY23 prospects for crop protection chemical and nutrients businesses.
The carry-over of higher cost inventory may abate compared to Q3 FY23 while the sustained decline in input chemical prices and container freight/shipping rates are tailwinds that could reduce costs and support volume/margin growth.
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Also Read: Automobiles Q4 Results Preview - Signs Of Growth Moderation Visible In Some Segments: Motilal Oswal
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