United Breweries Share Price Target Slashed By JPMorgan Amid 'Cloudy Q2' — Check Stock Prediction And More

JPMorgan has cut the share price target of United Breweries Ltd., highlighting the brewer's sluggish start to the second quarter of FY26, with frequent weather disruptions hitting key channels.

The brokerage cut its 12-month price target from Rs 2,200 to Rs 2,050 while maintaining an 'overweight' rating on the scrip.

JPMorgan cited weaker near-term volume for the beer segment and margin pressure as two of the key reasons behind the target price cut.

The note from JPMorgan explains how heavy monsoon rains for the June-September season weigh on demand for beer, which is perceived as a summer-centric product.

The impact on demand was seen in several states, including Rajasthan, Karnataka, Punjab and Haryana.

Another factor that weighed heavily on UBL was the additional price hikes exercised in states like Telangana, Karnataka, Odisha and West Bengal. This resulted in slower growth for the segment.

As a result, JPMorgan expects a low single-digit decline in Q2 volumes and has cut its FY26-FY27 Ebitda estimate by 8%.

Despite the short-term tremors, though, JPMorgan remains constructive on United Breweries' long-term growth horizon.

“Despite the short-term headwinds on poor seasonality, we remain encouraged by the potential for market share gains for United Breweries over the medium term,” the note said.

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JPMorgan also pointed to opportunities such as premiumisation and distribution margin as key growth levers for United Breweries.

The brokerage firm added that gross margin prospects remain relatively stable for the company, thanks to easier raw material costs and higher realisation from returnable bottles.

Looking ahead, JPMorgan forecasts a recovery in the second half of FY26, with volume growth of 6-7% over FY26-27. Factors such as new retail openings in Uttar Pradesh, market expansion in Andhra Pradesh and stronger growth in Maharashtra aid the company's long-term growth outlook.

Shares of United Breweries have fallen almost 15% over a one-year period.

Only four out of 19 analysts tracking the company have a 'buy' rating on the stock; six recommend a 'hold', while nine recommend 'sell', according to Bloomberg data. The 12-month analysts' consensus target price implies an upside of 12%.