Santa Rally: Small-Cap Stocks Tend To Outperform During Christmas — Key Ones To Track

Over the past ten years, the average returns during the 'Santa Rally' have been 3.55% for small-caps, 2.63% for mid-caps, and 1.78% for large-caps.

Small-cap stocks tracked by at least five analysts are projected to deliver strong returns in 2026. (Image: Unsplash)

Small-cap stocks have consistently outperformed mid-cap and large-cap stocks during the last five trading days of December and the first two of January with a 100% win rate, according to NDTV Profit research.

Over the past ten years, the average returns during the 'Santa Rally' have been 3.55% for small-caps, 2.63% for mid-caps, and 1.78% for large-caps. The key factors driving this rally include tax-planning flows, sentiment resets, and broader risk-on tendencies.

In the blue-chip Nifty 50 segment, Shriram Finance Ltd. has gained 11% in the last five sessions, while Trent Ltd. and Bharat Electronics Ltd. have risen by 2 and 3%, respectively.

Among mid-cap stocks, Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Services Ltd. has surged 11%, Cochin Shipyard Ltd. has climbed 6%, and Tata Elxsi Ltd. advanced 8%.

In the small-cap space, Jupiter Wagons Ltd. and Reliance Infrastructure recorded a 28% increase, Devyani International Ltd. rose by 11%, and Hindustan Copper Ltd. gained 10% over the last five sessions.

The Nifty Smallcap 250 index is down 6% year-to-date, while Nifty Midcap 100 is up 6%. The benchmark Nifty has gained nearly 11%.

Also Read: Nifty Pharma Underperforms In 2025, Highlighting Stock-Picker's Market

Stocks To Watch Out For

Small-cap stocks tracked by at least five analysts are projected to deliver strong returns in 2026, according to Bloomberg data. Leading the pack is Saregama Ltd., with an estimated upside of 60%, followed by Aditya Birla Real Estate Ltd. at 54%. ACME Solar Holdings Ltd. and Deepak Fertilizers Ltd. both show promising potential with expected gains of 53% each. Close behind is Techno Electric Engineering Ltd., forecasted to rise by 52%.

These projections highlight sectors spanning entertainment, real estate, renewable energy, chemicals, and power infrastructure as key areas of growth for the coming year.

Market Recap

Indian equity benchmarks ended flat after a volatile session on Tuesday, with weekly F&O expiry adding to intraday swings.

The BSE Sensex slipped 42.64 points, or 0.05%, to close at 85,524.84, while the Nifty 50 edged up 4.75 points to 26,177.15. The midcap index finished flat, whereas the small-cap index posted modest gains of 0.37%.

Sectorally, IT, healthcare, PSU banks and realty stocks declined 0.2–0.8%, while media gained 0.6%. Metals and PSU stocks rose about 0.5% each, and the energy index advanced 0.6%

Also Read: Trade Setup For Christmas Eve: Nifty Eyes 26,300 Milestone Amid Low Volatility

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WRITTEN BY
Shubhayan Bhattacharya
Shubhayan covers markets and business news at NDTV Profit. He has a keen in... more
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