Asian Stocks Look Subdued Ahead Of Jackson Hole: Markets Wrap

Financial markets moved in narrow ranges, with global equities holding near record highs, after Donald Trump’s meeting with Ukraine’s president and European leaders ended with a call for a summit with Russia.

European equity-index futures gained 0.3% as the leaders of the US, Ukraine, Europe and NATO emerged from hours of meetings, touting progress on peace talks to end the war in Ukraine. Oil dipped 0.4% as traders weighed the impact of the talks on supply of the commodity. Asian shares were flat while mainland China stocks held near their decade-high level.

Markets were cautiously optimistic on the Ukraine peace process after Trump urged Vladimir Putin to begin planning a summit with Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Investors face a pivotal week as the Federal Reserve’s annual Economic Policy Symposium kicks off Thursday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, potentially offering signals on the path of interest rates.

“Money is just waiting on the sidelines at the moment, until a fresh signal to move markets to fresh highs,” Nick Twidale, chief analyst at ATFX Global Markets in Sydney. “Investors were preparing for volatility after the talks but that has not eventuated and so they will now focus on central bank updates into the end of the week, with a huge focus on the Fed.”

Trump called Putin and urged the Russian leader to begin making plans for a summit with Zelenskiy, after meeting the Ukrainian president and European leaders at the White House on Monday.

The proposal — which Trump pitched as a one-on-one summit between Ukraine and Russia’s leaders that would be followed by a trilateral gathering involving all three — represented the latest turn in the US president’s push to broker a quick end to a conflict that has lasted over three years.

“The lack of market reaction may reflect low expectations for a resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war,” said Mingze Wu, a currency trader at StoneX in Singapore. “The world has been chugging along for the past two-plus years now, so peace in Europe may not do much, which aids this inertia in market bets.”

The markets are “laser-focused” on Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday, Wu said.

Powell is expected to unveil the Fed’s new policy framework — the strategy it’ll use to achieve its inflation and employment goals. Powell may also drop some hints about the Fed’s thinking ahead of its September policy meeting.

Interest-rate swaps show a roughly 80% chance that the Fed will lower rates next month by 25 basis points, with two cuts fully priced in by the end of the year.

“For now, the market appears to be betting that signs of labor-market weakness will outweigh inflation risk in the Fed’s rate-cutting debate,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

• S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 10:32 a.m. Tokyo time

• Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) fell 0.2%

• Japan’s Topix was little changed

• Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.6%

• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.1%

• The Shanghai Composite rose 0.1%

• Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.3%

Currencies

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%

• The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1642

• The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 148.09 per dollar

• The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1891 per dollar

• The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6486

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $116,107.51

• Ether fell 0.6% to $4,309.75

Bonds

• The yield on 10-year Treasuries was unchanged at 4.33%

• Japan’s 10-year yield advanced 1.5 basis points to 1.580%

• Australia’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.31%

Commodities

• West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.3% to $63.22 a barrel

• Spot gold was little changed