KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Rupee Strengthens Sharply Against The Dollar
The local currency strengthened by 32 paise to close at 83.14 against the US dollar.
It closed at 83.46 on Friday.
Source: Bloomberg
Nifty, Sensex Log Best Session In Over 3 Years As Polls Predict Modi 3.0: Closing Bell
India's key equity indices logged their best session in over three years as investors cheered exit polls, which projected victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, along with a better than expected GDP for the country.
Both Nifty and Sensex renewed their intraday highs of 23338.70 points and 76738.89 points respectively.
Both the indices recorded their best closing level also. The Nifty closed at 23,263.90 points, up 733.20 points or 3.25% and the Sensex closed at 76468.70, up by 3.39% or 2,507.47 points.
"The election results will come out tomorrow and looking at last 2 NDA wins, they have usually beaten most exit poll results," said Paras Matalia, fund manager & head of equity research at SAMCO Mutual Fund. "If that happens this time too, markets might see further upside, especially the PSUs and sectors like defence, power, manufacturing and renewable energy benefitting from government's focus.
He added that investors should stay invested although with caution now, as valuations have become pricier.
Alok Jain, smallcase manager and founder at Weekend Investing said that if there is an outcome of continuation which the market is sensing on Monday a lot of funds sitting on the sidelines can continue to pour in, tremendously large FII short positions that have been built can over time be unwound and expectations of new measures in the first 100 days can keep the ball rolling.
He added that there is little chance that this markets will roll back unless the outcome on June 4th is not per expectation. Meanwhile, "There is an outside chance that the actual results may infact be even more strong than the exit polls as has been seen in the last 3 election exit polls where final numbers were far more extended in the direction of the stronger swing."
Shares of Reliance Industries Ltd., State Bank Of India, ICICI Bank Ltd., HDFC Bank Ltd., and Larsen & Toubro Ltd. contributed the most to the gains.
While those of HCL Tech Ltd., Eicher Motors Ltd., Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., LTIMindtree Ltd., and Asian Paints Ltd. capped the upside.
All sectoral indices ended higher with Nifty PSU Bank shooting over 8%.
Broader markets also rose. The S&P BSE Midcap rose 3.54% and the S&P BSE Smallcap rose 2.05%.
All sectoral indices on the BSE gained. S&P BSE Utilities rose the most. The market breadth was skewed in the favour of buyers. Around 2,341 stocks rose, 1,619 fell and 155 remain unchanged on the BSE.
Prestige Estates Hits Lifetime High
The stock rose as much as 11.11% to hit its lifetime high of Rs 1,775.
GAIL (India) Hits Lifetime High
The scrip rose as much as 14.15% to Rs 233.20, its highest level. At 2:25 p.m. it traded 13% higher Rs 230.20, which compares to a 3.13% advance in the Nifty.
It has risen 42.5% on an year-to-date basis and 119.9% in the last twelve months.
Navin Fluorine Appoints Nitin Kulkarni As MD
Appoints Nitin Kulkarni as Managing Director for five years effective June 24.
Source: Exchange Filing
ICRA Revises Domestic Steel Production Estimate Upwards
Maintains sector outlook 'stable'
Revises FY25 domestic steel consumption growth upwards to 9-10%
New estimate stands 200 bps higher from earlier estimate of 7-8%,
Expects industry’s leverage to remain at 2.0-2.5 times level in FY25
Revised baseline FY25 avg steel price forecast upwards by 2-3%
Expect domestic steel imports to rise further by 13-14% in FY25
GE Power CFO Yogesh Gupta Resigns
Yogesh Gupta resigns as CFO effective July 23
Board appoints Aashish Ghai as CFO effective July 24
Source: Exchange Filing
Sectoral Indices Hitting Lifetime High
Nifty Infrastructure Hits Lifetime High
All constituents of the index rose. Power Grid Corp. Of India, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, and GAIL (India) were the top gainers.
Godrej Properties Hits Lifetime High
The stock rose as much as 7.96% to hit a lifetime high of Rs 2,999.85, before paring gains to trade 7.69% higher at Rs 2,994.50 as of 1:00 p.m.
It has risen 48.8% year to date and 91% in the last 12 months.
Nifty, Sensex Hit New Records As Adani, PSU Stocks Lead: Midday Market Update
Indian equity gauges maintained their gains through the day to mid-day following a record opening on Monday as exit polls showed return of the incumbent government for a third term, indicating policy continuity.
As of 11:55 a.m., the S&P BSE Sensex was 2,295 points, or 3.1%, up at 76.256, while the NSE Nifty 50 was 683.2 points or 3.3% higher at 23,213. Intraday, Nifty surged as much as 2.59% to a fresh high of 23,338.7, while Sensex rose 3.76% to a new high of 76,738.8.
During the session, the Nifty companies added over Rs 5 lakh crore in investors wealth.
The stock volatility gauge, India VIX, — which rose over 80% since phase 1 — fell over 22% during the session. On Saturday, as the Lok Sabha elections concluded, exit polls indicated a clear victory for the National Democratic Alliance.
On the currency front, the rupee strengthened 47 paise to open at Rs 82.99 against the US dollar on strong macroeconomic data. The Indian economy logged a 7.8% growth in the January-March quarter. For the full year, the gross domestic product is estimated to have grown by 8.2%.
Fundamentals, technicals and sentiments turning favourable at the same time is rare in the market, according to VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services. "This is what has happened now."
The market went into the elections very light, with the Nifty correcting around 600 points from the May highs. Profit-booking also happened on a large scale and the short position in the market also is high, Vijayakumar said. "All these are going to change dramatically. Domestic institutional investors, high net-worth individuals and retail participants are all going to turn buyers. Short covering can add to the momentum."
Nifty Auto Hits All Time High On Strong Sales And Exit Poll Euphoria
Automobile stocks are buzzing on the back of sales reported for the month of May and euphoria from the exit polls predicting continuation of the National Democratic Alliance government for a third term.
Nifty Auto was trading up 2.04% at 23,901, after opening at 52-week levels of 24,159 earlier on Monday. Top contributors for the index include Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. which rose 4.66%, Ashok Leyland Ltd. which was up 4.6% and Bajaj Auto Ltd which was 3.5% higher.
Top Five Indian Banks By Market Cap
HDFC Bank - Rs 11.9 lakh crore
ICICI Bank - Rs 8.1 lakh crore
SBI - Rs 8 lakh crore
Axis Bank - Rs 3.8 lakh crore
Kotak Mahindra Bank - Rs 3.4 lakh crore
SBI Crosses Rs 8 Lakh Crore In Market Cap For First Time
Three Nifty Stocks Hit Life High
Nifty Bank Extends Gains
PSU Stocks Surge As Markets Cheer After Exit Polls Indicates Policy Continuity
Shares of public-sector enterprises surged on Monday as market participants cheered exit poll results that showed a clear victory for the National Democratic Alliance, indicating policy continuity.
The pro-incumbency wave would imply policy continuity, a sustained focus on capex, fiscal consolidation in the final budget, and potential factor market reforms, Nomura said in a note.
LIC Shares Jump Nearly 5%
Life Insurance Corporation of India stock prices saw a nearly 5% jump as investors anticipate a third term for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA government.
Japan Airlines, IndiGo In Pact
Agree to start code-sharing from winter of 2024
Code-sharing agreement on Delhi, Bangalore and connecting Indian routes
Source: Press release
Ircon, IRFC, Titagarh Lead Railway Rally As Markets Bet On Big Modi Win
Railway stocks rallied on Monday on the back of a roaring stock market, as investors anticipate a bigger majority for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA government, which is expected to maintain its focus on infrastructure building, particularly on expanding the scale and services of the world's fourth-largest rail network.
Nifty Bank Cos Add Rs 1 Lakh Crore In Market Capitalisation
Bank Of Baroda, State Bank Of India and Axis Bank were the top gainers of the index.
Nifty Companies Add Over Rs 5 Lakh Crore In Market Cap
Shares of Power Grid Corp Of India, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd., and NTPC Ltd were the top gainers among Nifty stocks.
Shriram Finance Raises Multi-Currency Social Loan
Raises multi-currency social loan worth $468 million through syndicated term loan transaction
Source: Exchange filing
All Adani Group Stocks Rise; Group's Market Cap Crosses Rs 19.1 Lakh Crore
Adani group's market capitalisation hit Rs 19.1 lakh crore on Monday with Adani Power and Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd leading the gains.
Intraday, the group's market capitalisation gained as much as Rs 2.17 lakh crore. As of 10:37 a.m., it was higher by Rs 1.33 lakh crore to Rs 18.8 lakh crore
Shares of Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd.'s hit its record high at
Rs 1,607.95 and the stock's upper circuit was revised to 15%. The company, in its May business update said it handled 35.8 MMT of cargo volumes, which is almost flat YoY.
"Due to shutdown of the Gangavaram Port, APSEZ lost around 6 MMT of cargo volumes in April & May’24," it said. "However, with the operations now restarted, we are confident of recovering these lost volumes in the coming months."
The filing added that despite the closure of Gangavaram port, during the initial two months of FY25, the company handled 72 MMT of cargo, implying 5% YoY growth. "This increase is primarily driven by containers (+11% YoY) and liquids & gas," the filing said.
Adani Power also hit a lifetime high of Rs 890 after the company's annual report showed that it is set to expand capacity by 9,020 MW. Shares of Ambuja Cements also hit a new lifetime high of Rs 676.65.
Today, the sentiment was also uplifted as brokerages were positive on the infrastructure sector after exit polls suggested a likely win for BJP-led NDA.
The scrip rose as much as 12.80% to Rs 1,621.40 apiece, the highest level. It pared gains to trade 10% higher at Rs1,581 apiece, as of 10:44 a.m. This compares to a 2.77% advance in the NSE Nifty 50 Index.
It has risen 54.24% on a year-to-date basis and 113.86% in the last twelve months. Total traded volume so far in the day stood at 3.59 times its 30-day average. The relative strength index was at 74.78, indicating that the stock may be overbought.
VIX Slumps
Indian stock market volatility fell over 22% on Monday as the stock markets welcomed the exit polls result that showed policy continuity by the incumbent government. The markets' fear gauge, India VIX, fell as much as 22.3% in early trade to 19.11 and was down 20% at 19.5.
Defence Stocks at Lifetime High
Shares of Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd., Bharat Dynamics Ltd. and Bharat Electronics Ltd. hit all-time highs on Monday after exit polls showed a policy continuity by the incumbent government.
The focus of Modi 3.0 will likely continue on developing the country’s public infrastructure, such as roads, water, metro, railways, defence, digital infrastructure, and green technologies, Axis Securities said in a report.
Projected Modi 3.0 Propels Nifty, Sensex To New High: Opening Bell
Benchmark equity indices shot up to their record high levels as exit polls suggest another win for the BJP-led NDA and better than expected GDP of the country.
At pre-open the Nifty surged to 23,337.90, higher by 807.20 points or 3.58% and the Sensex jumped to 76,583.29, up by 2,621.98 or 3.55%.
Vikas Jain, senior research analyst at Reliance Securities, had said that he expects the market to open on a strong note after the exit poll forecast by many media reports that the BJP-led NDA will win between 350 and 400 seats, ahead of expectation between 290-330 seats.
"A decisive breach above 22800 zone shall improve the bias to some extent and thereafter, can anticipate for further rise while a breach below 22150 zone shall weaken the trend overall," said Prabhudas Lilladher in a report.
Shares of HDFC Bank Ltd., ICICI Bank Ltd., Reliance Industries Ltd., Larsen & Toubro Ltd., State Bank Of India contributed the most to the gains.
All sectoral indices rose on the NSE with Nifty Energy and Nifty Energy jumping nearly 5%.
Broader indices also rose. The S&P BSE Midcap rose 2.7% and and S&P BSE Smallcap was trading 2.17% higher.
All 20 sectoral indices on the BSE rose with S&P BSE Power leading.
The market breadth was skewed in the favour of buyers. Around 2,746 stocks gained, 439 fell, and 116 remained unchanged on the NSE.
Adani Ports May Business Update
Records 35.8 MMT of cargo volumes in May
Mundra port handles 17.6 MMT cargo in May
Source: Exchange filing
Yield On The 10-Year Bond Declines
The yield on the 10-year bond opened 4 bps lower at 7.00%.
It closed at 7.04% on Friday.
Source: Cogencis
Nifty, Sensex Jumps Over 3% At Pre-Open
At pre-open the Nifty surged to 23,337.90, higher by 807.20 points or 3.58% and the Sensex jumped to 76,583.29, up by 2,621.98 or 3.55%.
Rupee Strengthens Sharply Against US Dollar After Exit Polls, Stunner GDP
The local currency strengthened by 47 paise to open at 82.99 against the US dollar.
It closed at 83.46 on Friday.
Source: Bloomberg
Motilal Oswal On Sunteck Realty
Retains 'buy'; Target Price: Rs 640 (+37%)
Targeting 30-35% bookings growth in FY25
Confident of achieving it even if the launch of Napean Sea
Surplus cash generation has been robust at INR4b in FY24
Residential: aggressively looking for new projects in the Western Suburbs/South Mumbai
Hopeful to sign a few large deals in FY25
Revenue from Avenue 4 (ODC) and Maxx World, along with BKC projects, will be recognized in FY25
Expect to deliver a healthy 30% pre-sales CAGR over FY24-26
Sound balance sheet, strong cash flows, and partnership with IFC to drive growth
Citi On Gateway Distriparks
Maintained 'buy' call on Gateway Distriparks and raised the target price to Rs 127 per share, implying a potential upside of 29% from the previous close.
January-March quarter was impacted by one-off expenses that are transitory.
Roll-over estimates to March 2026, and earnings per share estimates increased by 4%.
Morgan Stanley On Suzlon Energy
Initiated coverage with an 'overweight' on Suzlon Energy with a target price to Rs 58.5 per share, implying a potential upside of 23% from the previous close.
Favourable macro backdrop implies a growing market for the renewable energy value chain.
Expects 32 GW of wind orders over the next five years, 56 GW through March 2032.
Suzlon is turning around, strongly positioned for the current upcycle.
Much stronger after deleveraging, and much leaner after cutting fixed operating costs.
Market has not fully appreciated its growth potential yet.
Wind making a comeback.
Applied a target price-to-earnings of 35 times to the first half of fiscal 2027 earnings.
Downside risks include competition from global players re-entering India, order slowdown, land-availability issues, supply-chain constraints, transmission projects delays and weakening working-capital days.
JTL Industries Completes Phase 1 Expansion At Unit
Completes phase 1 expansion at its subsidiary Nabha Steels
Expansion to aid EBITDA/ton at Nabha Steels plant by Rs 2,000/ton range
Source: Exchange filing
Citi on United Spirits
Maintains Neutral with a Target of Rs. 1250 (upside 7%)
Demand environment at the lower-end remains soft
Near-term growth could be muted off a high base
Management maintains their guidance of double-digit growth in FY25E
Premiumization continues to be the key focus area for United Spirits
Headline pricing could be lower in FY25E as inflation moderates and on a high base
Remains positive on UNSP’s medium-term growth prospects
Welspun Corp Associate Company In Pact With Aramco
Saudi Arabia-based associate company East Pipes signs off contract worth Rs 3,670 crore with Aramco
Duration of the contract is 19 months
Source: Exchange filing
Brokerages On Exit Polls
Emkay
Exit polls indicate comfortable win for BJP-led NDA
Expect macro-financial stability to be prioritized going forward
Expect CAD to be moderate at 1.2% of GDP for FY25
Believe July budget to be next big trigger for markets; rather than elections
Immediate beneficiaries of 3rd NDA govt: Capital Goods, Housing, Tourism, Aviation
Expect textiles and pharma API as probable winners given govt push for domestic manufacturing
Remain OVERWEIGHT on Industrials, Discretionary, Materials
Remain UNDERWEIGHT on Financials, IT
Motilal Oswal
NDA forecasted to win 370 seats as per avg of all exit polls
Victory of PM Modi/BJP augurs well for economy and capital markets
'Overweight' on Financials, Consumption, Industrials, Real Estate
Key preferred investment themes: Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate, PSU Banks
Large Cap Picks: ICICI Bank, SBI, L&T, Coal India, M&M, Adani Ports, ABB, HPCL, Hindalco
Midcap Picks: Indian Hotels, Godrej Properties, Global Health, KEI Industries, PNB Housing, Cello World, Kirloskar Oil.
IIFL Securities on India Politics
As per exit polls, BJP unlikely to witness anti-incumbency
Overall voter turnout lower by 220 bps vs 2019
Believe markets likely to see continuity
Government to accelerate reforms in electricity, agriculture in 3rd term
Markets likely to see continuity
Positive on Infra, cement, private banks, NBFCs, select industrials
Negative on IT, chemicals
Neutral on most consumer sectors
Jefferies
Exit polls indicate 305-350 seats for the BJP alone
355- 415 seats for NDA
If exit polls turn out to be true, Sentiment positive for Capex stocks
SMID caps could take near-term breather, post election rally
Divergence between different exit polls is lower, indicating higher predictability
Bernstein
Exit polls have got it wrong, and right too
2024 results are different, and we expect them to hold with less deviation than in 2014 and 2019
Continuation of relief rally can happen; Markets could touch 23.5k briefly
Higher seat tally could increase magnitude but not duration of the rally
Broader outlook is unchanged
Positive: Manufacturing
Weak: IT, consumption
Continue to hold our view of high single digit returns from markets this year
Trade Setup: Top Stocks To Watch Out For On June 3
NDTV Profit's Niraj Shah lists his top stock picks as markets gear up for a gap-up opening after Modi's exit poll victory and better-than-expected GDP data.
Global Cues
US Dollar Index at 104.54
US 10-year bond yield at 4.49%
Brent crude up 0.48% at $81.50 per barrel
Nymex crude down 0.55% at $77.41 per barrel
Bitcoin was up 0.54% at $68,158
The GIFT Nifty was up by 602 points or 2.65% at 23,349.50 as of 7:16 a.m.
F&O Cues
Nifty June futures up by 0.34% to 22,700.7 at a premium of 170 points.
Nifty June futures open interest up by 8.16%.
Nifty Bank June futures up by 0.7 % to 49,352.35 at a premium of 458.4 points.
Nifty Bank June futures open interest down by 7.34%.
Nifty Options June 6 Expiry: Maximum call open interest at 23,000 and maximum put open interest at 20,200.
Bank Nifty Options June 5 Expiry: Maximum call open interest at 57,000 and maximum put open interest at 40,000.
Trading Tweaks
Price Band Change from 5% to 20%: PTC India Financial Services.
Ex/record dividend: Rallis India, Sundaram Fasteners, Anand Rathi Wealth, D. B Corp, ITC,
Ex/record Buyback: Anand Rathi Wealth.
Moved into short term Framework: IIFL Securities.
Insider Trades
Chambal Fertilizers & Chemicals: Promoter Zuari Industries created a pledge for 17 lakh shares on May 28.
Kfin Technologies: Promoter General Atlantic Singapore Fund Pte. sold 1 crore shares.
Bulk Deals
Blue Cloud Softech Solutions: Supraja Business Consultants sold 13 lakh shares (0.59%) at Rs 88.7 apiece, while Duranta Infrastructure sold 12 lakh shares (0.55%) at Rs 88.7 apiece.
Berger Paints: Integrated Core Strategies (Asia) bought 92.85 lakh shares (0.79%) at Rs 460.94 apiece.
CarTrade Tech: Cmdb Ii sold 18.76 lakh shares (4%) at Rs 900 apiece, and Tt Emerging Markets Unconstrained Fund bought 5.46 lakh shares (1.16%) at Rs 900 apiece.
Indraprastha Gas: Integrated Core Strategies (Asia) bought 99.72 lakh shares (1.42%) at Rs 442.12 apiece.
Jindal Stainless: BNP Paribas Financial Markets sold 52.04 lakh shares (0.63%) at Rs 784.95 apiece; Copthall Mauritius Investment sold 49.83 lakh shares (0.6%) at Rs 793.13 apiece; and Integrated Core Strategies (Asia). sold 43.95 lakh shares (0.53%) at Rs 792.23 apiece.
Phoenix Mills: BNP Paribas Financial Markets sold 14.67 lakh shares (0.82%) at Rs 3,092.11 apiece, Copthall Mauritius Investment sold 9.27 lakh shares (0.51%) at Rs 3,094.54 apiece, and Integrated Core Strategies (Asia) sold 12.38 lakh shares (0.69%) at Rs 3,093.85 apiece.
PB Fintech: BNP Paribas Financial Markets sold 27.33 lakh shares (0.6%) at Rs 1,287.33 apiece, Copthall Mauritius Investment Ltd. sold 29.64 lakh shares (0.65%) at Rs 1,291.67 apiece, and UBS Principal Capital Asia Ltd. sold 26.66 lakh shares (0.59%) at Rs 1,292.89 apiece.
Sundaram Finance: BNP Paribas Financial Markets sold 9.27 lakh shares (0.83%) at Rs 4270.28 apiece, Copthall Mauritius Investment Ltd. sold 7.73 lakh shares (0.69%) at Rs 4,279.69 apiece, Integrated Core Strategies (Asia) Pte. sold 7.57 lakh shares (0.68%) at Rs 4,280.45 apiece, and UBS Principal Capital Asia Ltd. sold 9.57 lakh shares (0.86%) at Rs 4,277.64 apiece.
Torrent Power: Integrated Core Strategies (Asia) Pte. sold 24.69 lakh shares (0.51%) at Rs 1,498.79 apiece.
Thermax: Integrated Core Strategies (Asia) Pte. sold 10.34 lakh shares (0.86%) at Rs 5,403.76 apiece.
Stocks to Watch
Canara Bank: The company is to dilute a 14.5% stake in the arm of Canara HSBC Life through an IPO.
Aurobindo Pharma: The company's arm executed a master service pact with Merck Sharpe and will invest Rs 1,000 crore for the manufacturing facility.
REC: The company approved raising up to Rs 1.45 lakh crore through bonds and appointed Harsh Baweja as CFO.
Inox Wind: The board of the company has approved raising Rs 1,000 crore in one or more tranches through preference shares. The fundraising is subject to all requisite approvals, including those of the shareholders.
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone: The company's arm has signed a 30-year concession pact with the Tanzania Ports Authority for container terminals.
Wipro: The company has expanded its retail media offering by partnering with Cisco and AT&T.
NTPC: The company commissioned the second and last part capacity of 33 MW out of the 90 MW Anta Solar PV Project in Rajasthan. The company's total capacity on a standalone and group basis now stands at 59,168 MW and 76,048 MW, respectively.
Bank of India: The company is to raise MCLR by 5 bps across most tenures, effective June 1.
Angel One: The company arm incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary for the distribution of financial products and services.
PNC Infratech: The company arm gets a one-time settlement amount worth Rs 391 crore from NHAI.
GIFT Nifty Trades Near 23,400
Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region traded higher on Monday, continuing last week's positive close and renewed rate-cut hopes by the US Federal Reserve.
South Korea's Kospi rose the most by nearly 2%, followed by Hong Kong's Hang Seng, Japan's Nikkei and Topix, all rising by over 1%. China's CSI 300 index traded flat.
A renewed bout of volatility gripped US stocks in the final stretch of Friday session, with most of them ending in the final 20 minutes of trading.
The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite rose 0.80% and 1.51%, respectively, as of Friday, while Dow Jones ended little changed.
Brent crude was trading higher by 0.48% at $81.50 per barrel. Gold rose 0.16% to $2,330.95 an ounce.
The GIFT Nifty was trading higher by 602 points or 2.65% at 23,349.50 as of 7:16 a.m.
India’s benchmark equity indices erased most of their early losses to end marginally higher on Friday. On a weekly basis, the Nifty recorded its worst fall since the week ended May 10.
The NSE Nifty 50 closed 0.19% or 42.05 points higher at 22,530.70, while the S&P BSE Sensex ended 0.10% or 75.71 points up at 73,961.31.
Overseas investors turned net buyers on Friday after two days of selling. Foreign portfolio investors mopped up stocks worth Rs 1,613.2 crore, while domestic institutional investors stayed net buyers for nine straight sessions and bought equities worth Rs 2,114.2 crore, the NSE data showed.
The Indian rupee weakened by 15 paise to close at 83.46 against the US dollar.
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