D-Street Sees Earnings Rebound Post Four-Quarter Slump; Jefferies, JPMorgan Cautiously Optimistic — Here's Why

India’s market strategists are sounding a little more upbeat this quarter, as growth is picking up again after four straight quarters of slipping.

Jefferies’ Mahesh Nandurkar says the early festive season acted like a booster shot, pushing revenue growth to a 10-quarter high. But there’s a catch: the market now wants to know whether this GST-driven consumption bounce can actually last. For now, Jefferies pegs MSCI India FY26 earnings growth at 10%, but sustainability is the real hero (or villain) to watch.

Over at Citi, strategist Surendra Goyal agrees Q2 was “slightly ahead,” and notes that the revisions trajectory has finally stopped wobbling. Festive demand did show signs of life, but Citi isn’t ready to celebrate until it sees whether shoppers keep that energy going.

On the macro wishlist: an update on the US–India trade deal and confirmation of a return to double-digit earnings in FY27. Citi’s numbers? The brokerage set a reasonable target of 27,600 for the Nifty 50 by September 2026, with relative valuations still looking reasonable.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan’s Rajiv Batra is decidedly more cheerful. Q2 was better than expected, and he’s betting on accelerated double-digit growth in the remainder of this fiscal and FY27. JPMorgan is doubling down on its favourite theme: India’s domestics over exporters. Top picks span a busy shopping cart: Materials, Financials, Consumer, Hospitals, Real Estate, Defence and Power.

The mood across the street, overall, remains cautiously optimistic, with brokerages seeing a potential uptick to double digit growth in the quarters to come.