US Fed Meeting: Jerome Powell Flags Inflation Risk In 2025 As FOMC Sees Fewer Interest Rate Cuts

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to lower interest rate by 25 basis points to target range of 4.25-4.5%. Jerome Powell said the guard on inflation is up even as US economy looks resilient.

The US Fed has lowered the federal fund rate target range to 4.25-4.50%. (Photo source: Fed/X profile)

The Federal Open Market Committee, which is meeting for the last time in 2024, has delivered a 25 bps interest rate cut for the third consecutive time. It has lowered projection of rate cuts in 2025, as it sees inflation to edge up.
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US Fed Meeting Live: Check Key Highlights

The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday reduced its key interest rate for the third time since the pandemic, in line with expectations. The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the rate for the first time in September and then in November.

The central bank had kept its key interest rate unchanged for eight consecutive meetings until July, after raising it by 25 basis points last year, bringing the benchmark rate to a 22-year high.

Read full story here.

US Fed Rate Cut Reaction: Gold Extends Losses

Gold extended declines after the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates and forecast less monetary easing for 2025. Spot gold was 1.6% lower at $2,605 an ounce in New York. Silver, palladium and platinum were all lower.

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Jerome Powell Live: Fed Gave Big Rate Cut This Year, Chair Says

"The one percentage point in cuts this year show that the US Fed has done a lot to support the economy," Powell said, adding policymakers now want to see progress on inflation before reducing rates further.

US Fed Rate Cut: Dollar Surges Ahead

The US dollar continued to rally after Federal Resreve cut its benchmark interest rate, but projected less cuts next year.

The dollar index is up 0.9% at 108, highest since 2022.

Read story here.

US Stock Market Check: Dow Jones, Nasdaq Shed 1%

Here’s how US markets are reacting as Jerome Powell is talking about the Federal Reserve interest rate cut:

  • Dow Jones down 1.13% at 42,960.

  • S&P 500 down 0.8% to 6,000.

  • Nasdaq Composite down 1.6% to 19,788.

Jerome Powell Live: No Clarity On Trump Tariff Impact 

Jerome Powell said the US Fed has been doing "a good bit of work” on how tariffs might impact inflation, in response to questions on how he sees Donald Trump's proposed tariff policy.

“It puts us in position, when we finally do see what the actual policies are, to make a more careful, thoughtful assessment of what might be the appropriate policy path."

Jerome Powell Live: Inflation Worries Persist

"The US economy is growing at a healthy 2.5% pace, unemployment is low, but inflation forecast is higher and there is uncertainity," Powell said, responding to whether future rate cuts in 2025 will be larger.

Powell notes that there were two months of higher inflation, for September and October, which was a “large factor” and perhaps the single biggest factor behind the higher trajectory for inflation forecasts released today.

Jerome Powell Live: US Job Market Cooling

Powell said the labor market is still cooling. But the Fed doesn’t think more cooling is needed to get inflation down, he says.

Jerome Powell Live: US Fed At Neutral Setting

"We’ve been moving policy toward a more neutral setting," the Fed chair said. He said inflation expectations are well-anchored, but notes the changes in Fed officials’ forecasts for the years to come. "We are not in a pre-set course."

Jerome Powell Live: US Economy Resilient, Says Fed Chair

Powell said policymakers generally expect GDP growth to remain strong. He said growth in consumer spending has remained “resilient.” But housing activity has been “weak.” He reiterates that the labor market remains “solid.”

US Fed Chair Jerome Powell Begins | WATCH

US Fed Repeats Risks To Labour, Inflation Goals Roughly In Balance

"The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," FOMC statement said.

US Fed Reaction: Treasury Yield Rises

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond rose five basis points to 4.45% after the FOMC decision to cut interest rate by quarter-point.

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US Fed Meeting Live: Key Takeaways From Statement

  • Federal Open Market Committee votes 11-1 to lower benchmark rate by 25 basis points to target range of 4.25%-4.5%

  • “Dot plot” of rate projections shows the median official expected to lower rates by a half percentage point in 2025, implying just two quarter-point cuts next year; five of 19 officials penciled in 75 basis points of cuts or more

  • Median Fed official sees inflation rate at 2.5% by end of 2025, up from 2.1% forecast in September

  • Statement maintains language saying risks to achieving employment and inflation goals “are roughly in balance”

  • Statement says that “in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments” to rates, officials will assess incoming data, evolving outlook and balance of risks.

US Fed Reaction: Dollar Surges After Rate Cut

The US dollar rose to its highest since Nov. 22 after the FOMC delivered its third interest rate cut. The dollar index was up 0.62% at 107.62. It gained against the Ero, Pound and Yen.

US Fed Meeting Live: Job Data Projection

Fed officials are tipping an unemployment rate of 4.3% in 2025.

US Fed Meeting Live: Rate Cut Projection For 2025

  • FOMC median forecast shows 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2025 to 3.9%.

  • FOMC median 2025 inflation forecast rises to 2.5% compared to 2.1%.

The median forecast of Fed policymakers for the benchmark rate for the end of 2025 is now 3.9%. That compares with 3.4% back in September. That suggests 50 basis points of easing compared with 100 basis points in September (including the impact of today’s rate cut).

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U.S Fed Meeting Live: Dow Jones, Nasdaq Drop

Here’s how US markets are reacting after the Federal Reserve interest rate cut:

  • Dow Jones down 0.44% at 43,263.

  • S&P 500 up 0.2% to 6,062.

  • Nasdaq Composite down 0.65% to 19,973.

US Fed Rate Live: FOMC Votes In 11:1

The US FOMC decision was not unnanimous. Jerome Powell and ten other members voted for the quarter-point cut, while voting against the action was Beth M. Hammack, who preferred to maintain the current target range.

Live: FOMC Delivers Third Interest Rate Cut In Final Meeting Of 2024

The Federal Open Market Committee on Thursday delivered a third consecutive quarter-point interest rate cut. The federal funds rate has been reduced from 4.5-4.75% to 4.25-4.5%.

Read full story here.

US Fed Meeting Live

Analysts expect the dot plots could indicate another 3 rate cuts in 2025, which is in line with market expectations.

US Fed Meeting Live: Stocks Remain In Green Hour Beore Decision

Here’s how US markets are reacting ahead of Federal Reserve interest rate cut as of 11:35 p.m. India time:

  • Dow Jones up 0.31% at 43,584.

  • S&P 500 up 0.19% to 6,062.

  • Nasdaq Composite up 0.23% to 20,155.

US FOMC Live: Going For 25 BPS Cut

Recent comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller have reinforced market expectations of a rate cut. His support comes from on incoming inflation and employment data aligning with current projections. The Fed’s target range currently stands at 4.50% to 4.75%, with the anticipated cut potentially bringing rates to 4.25% to 4.50%.

Markets will closely scrutinise the Fed’s updated economic projections and dot plot for insights into the pace and extent of potential rate cuts throughout 2025.

US FOMC Live: Dollar Gains Strength

The Dollar Index surged by 0.22% to 107.18, hours before the FOMC decision announcement. The greenback strengthened against the Japanese Yen, British Pound and Euro.

US Fed Meeting: Where And How To Watch FOMC Meet

Powell's press conference following the end of the meeting will be streamed live on the YouTube Channel of NDTV Profit.

The media briefing will also be available online via live streaming on the US Fed's official website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/live-broadcast.htm. The press conference can also be viewed live on the social media pages of the Fed, including their YouTube channel.

Also Read: US Fed Meeting: Date, Time, What To Expect And How To Watch Jerome Powell's Speech Live

US Fed Meeting Live: US GDP Growth In Q3

The US inflation-adjusted gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 2.8%, following a 3% increase in the September quarter, according to the government’s second estimate published last month. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists had predicted a 2.9% growth rate.

The increase in the third quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, federal government spending, and business investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

US Fed Meeting Live: The Latest On Inflation Reading

The US consumer price index rose 0.3% in November for the fourth-straight month, while core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose by the same amount. The core gauge — economists’ preferred number — was up 3.3% from a year before, inline with estimates.

US Fed Meeting Live: Stocks Make Notable Gains

Here’s how US markets are reacting ahead of Federal Reserve interest rate cut as of 9:30 p.m. India time:

  • Dow Jones up 0.5% at 43,666.

  • S&P 500 up 0.27% to 6,070.

  • Nasdaq Composite up 0.3% to 20,169.28.

US Fed Meeting Live: What Fed Officials Discussed In Last FOMC Meeting 

The minutes from Nov. 6-7 FOMC meeting showed that Fed officials were optimistic that inflation is subsiding, and the labour market remains robust, supporting the possibility of further interest rate cuts, though at a measured pace. Although, officials noted that monetary policy decisions are contingent on economic trends and cautioned against making premature rate cuts.

Additionally, some participants suggested keeping rates at restrictive levels if inflation persisted, while others advocated for accelerated cuts if labour markets weakened, but NFP rebounded in November.

Other Major Global Events This Week

The Bank of Japan and the Bank of England will make their interest rate decision on Thursday. The US will issue its revised thirs quarter GDP figures.

Japan's retail inflation print will arrive on Friday, as well as Eurozone consumer confidence and US personal income, spending and PCE inflation.

US FOMC Decision: Quarter-Point Rate Cut Expectation

Fed funds futures trading currently shows a 95% chance that the central bank will cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point to a target of 4.25-4.5%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

However, bets for another cut in January has wavered. The projection sees the US central bank keeping rates steady.

US Fed Meeting: Stocks On Edge For 2024's Last FOMC Call

US markets are clearly focused on the Fed's last rate decision of 2024. A quarter-point cut is widely expected, but uncertainity looms over the future course of action.

Despite the resilience of the US economy, the potential for inflationary import tariffs under Donald Trump's incoming administration may cause Fed officials to reconsider the pace of future rate hikes.

The Fed's future rate projection and Chairman Jerome Powell's speech will be closely monitored. The decision will be announced at 12:30 a.m. India time and Powell will address a press conference at 1:00 a.m.

Read full story here.

US Fed Meeting Live: Bitcoin Dips From Life Highs

Bitcoin, the world's largest-traded cryptocurrency, declines from its life high by 1.8% to $104,537.76.

US Fed Meeting Live: Gold Prices Slip

Spot gold prices fell 0.3% to $2,638.25 per ounce.

Read full story here.

US Fed Meeting Live: Bond Steady

The 10-year US Treasury yield was majorly unchanged at 4.4%, ahead of FOMC decision.

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US Fed Meeting Live: Dollar Unchanged

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed at 107.

  • The euro was little changed at $1.0488

  • The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2694

  • The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 153.83 per dollar

US Fed Meeting Live: Stocks Open Mixed

US stocks opened mixed on Wednesday, ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.

The S&P 500 was down 0.06% at 6,048, and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.06% at 43,474.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped 0.07% to below 23,000 level.

Read full story here.

US Fed Meeting Live: How Markets Closed A Day Ago

US stocks declined on Tuesday as traders braced for the Federal Reserve’s widely anticipated rate decision and its forecast for next year.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both dropped 0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced its longest losing streak since 1978. The 10-year Treasury yield remained steady at 4.40%, and Bloomberg's dollar index saw fluctuations throughout the session.

Also Read: US Stocks Drop Before Fed’s Last Decision Of The Year: Market Wrap

US Fed Meeting Live: Stock Futures Mixed

Futures of key US indices were trading mixed ahead of market open. The S&P 500 was up 0.06% at 6,132, and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.25% at 44,070 as of 7:40 p.m. India time.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq was trading 0.07% to below 23,000 level.

US Fed Meeting Live: FOMC Decision Day

The Federal Open Market Committee, which is meeting for the last time in 2024, will announce key decisions in the early hours of Thursday. The US Federal Reserve started its two-day policy meeting on Dec. 17.

The Fed's decisions will also come weeks before Donald Trump takes the oath as the 47th president of the United States on Jan. 20, 2025, making it a key meeting to mark new beginnings.

The Fed, led by Jerome Powell, is expected to go for a third consecutive rate cut at the meeting.

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WRITTEN BY
Shubhayan Bhattacharya
Shubhayan covers markets and business news at NDTV Profit. He has a keen in... more
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