The Bharatiya Janata Party could be headed for a victory in the Delhi assembly elections 2025, thereby ending its 27-year drought from power in the national capital, as per the exit polls that have emerged so far.
Out of 10 notable exit polls released so far, nine predict a BJP win, whereas only one projects the ruling Aam Aadmi Party to retain power.
According to People's Pulse, the BJP is likely headed towards a decisive win with 51-60 seats in the 70-member Delhi assembly. The AAP is expected to be restricted to 10-19 seats, whereas the Congress is likely to draw a blank again, as per the poll.
Another survey, conducted by Poll Diary, projects the BJP to win 42-50 seats — significantly higher than the halfway majority-mark of 36 seats. The AAP is expected to win 18-25 seats.
P-Marq predicts the BJP to win 39-49 seats, whereas the AAP is seen trailing at 21-31. People's Insights projects BJP victory in 40-44 constituencies, whereas the AAP is seen restricted to 25-29.
JVC projects the BJP securing wins in 39-45 seats, whereas the AAP is seen ahead in 22-31.
Matrize, while predicting a cliffhanger contest, also gives the edge to the BJP. It sees the saffron party winning 35-40 seats and the AAP bagging 32-37 seats. Mind Brink projects 44-49 seats for the saffron party, and 21-25 for the AAP.
Chanakya Strategies expects the BJP to win 39-44 seats, and the AAP's tally to come down to 25-28, whereas DV Research projects 36-44 seats for the BJP and 26-34 for the AAP.
So far, only one survey, conducted by WeePreside, predicts a victory for the incumbent AAP. The exit poll gives 46-52 seats for the Arvind Kejriwal-led party, and 18-23 for the BJP.
Most of the above surveys predict Congress to win nil to two constituencies.
Track live updates on Delhi exit polls here.
The average of these surveys, as enlisted below, projects BJP winning 39 out of the 70 seats in Delhi, which is four more than the halfway-mark. In the last assembly polls, the party had won only eight seats.
On the other hand, the poll of exit polls projects the AAP winning 30 seats, which is nearly half of its tally of 62 wins in the 2020 assembly elections.
Notably, exit poll numbers are based on analysis and research by the respective agencies. They may or may not accurately project the results. The actual outcome of the electoral contest will emerge on Feb. 8, when the Election Commission of India has scheduled the counting of votes.
The exit poll numbers came shortly after voting concluded across the 70 assembly segments of Delhi. The voter turnout stood at 57.7% till 5 pm, the Election Commission said.
Delhi witnessed a triangular contest in the elections, with the ruling AAP pitted against the main rival BJP, and the Congress which once led the government in the national capital for 15 straight years.
The AAP, founded in 2012, first formed the government in Delhi in January 2014 after winning 28 out of 70 seats in the assembly elections held in the preceding month. The government, however, lasted only 49 days as the post-poll pact between the Kejriwal-led party and Congress failed to last.
In the next assembly polls held in February 2015, the AAP swept to power with a decisive mandate, winning 67 out of the 70 seats. The party retained power in the 2020 polls, again winning a brute majority of 62 seats in the 70-member assembly.
The BJP, despite sweeping all seven Lok Sabha seats of Delhi in the 2014, 2019 and 2024 general elections, has failed to replicate the performance in assembly polls. The saffron party last headed the Delhi government in 1998.
The Congress, under late former chief minister Sheila Dikshit, held power in Delhi from 1998 to 2013. However, the party faced a rout in the 2013 polls when it was restricted to only eight seats. In 2015 and 2020 elections, the grand old party drew a blank.
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