India's Russian Oil Imports To Hit Three-Year Low In December From Multi-Month Highs—Here's Why

India's Russian oil imports are set to hit their lowest in at least three years in December, down from multi-month highs in November, according to news agency Reuters. This comes as domestic refiners turned to alternatives to avoid breaching Western sanctions amid US trade tariffs.

Britain, the European Union and the United States have tightened sanctions on Moscow over the war in Ukraine, with Washington’s latest measures targeting top Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil, as per the report. Buyers of Russian oil had until November 21 to wind down dealings with the two firms.

Separately, the EU has set a January 21 deadline after which it will decline fuel from refineries that handled Russian crude within 60 days of the bill of lading.

According to Reuters, bank scrutiny following the latest US sanctions has made Indian state refiners extremely cautious. India is likely to get 600,000 to 650,000 barrels per day of Russian oil in December.

These include imports by Indian Oil Corp, Nayara Energy and delivery of some November-loading cargoes for Reliance Industries driven by preliminary lifting plans of Indian companies.

This month, India is expected to receive 1.87 million bpd of Russian crude, provisional data from Kpler showed. In October it imported 1.65 million bpd of Russian oil, up 2% from September, data from trade sources shows.

Russian supply is expected to be high in November as many refineries tried to fill the stocks prior to the US sanctions deadline and also due to the rule for oil products production for EU market from non-Russian oil from 2026.

Most Indian refiners such as Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd have stopped buying Russian oil.

State-run Indian Oil Corp and Bharat Petroleum Corp have said they will buy only from the non-sanctioned entities. Nayara Energy, partly owned by Rosneft, is exclusively processing Russian oil after other suppliers pulled back following British and EU sanctions.

Reliance Industries has said it loaded Russian oil cargoes "precommitted" as of October 22, and will process any parcel arriving after November 20 at its refinery that is geared to produce fuels for the local market.

Reliance, the operator of the world's biggest refining complex, has two refineries with one catering exclusively to export markets. The share of US oil in India's oil imports in October surged to its highest since June 2024 as refiners tapped an arbitrage window.

India is also under pressure to buy more US energy after Washington doubled tariffs on Indian imports to 50%, India's constant buying of Russian oil.