In This Economy: New Bank Boss, Old Loan Questions, Trump Tirade

Happy Tuesday! A lot has happened in the world of banking and finance over the last couple of weeks. IndusInd Bank finally has a new CEO at the helm, with Rajiv Anand being appointed for three years. The Enforcement Directorate is questioning Anil Ambani today on one of India's biggest corporate fraud stories, with funds worth Rs 17,000 crore at stake. The agency is also talking to banks who extended loans to Ambani's companies, with sources saying that further investigations are ongoing.

Earlier Donald Trump referred to India's economy as being "dead", which became a major talking point on social media with many coming to the nation's defence.

This week promises to be as action-packed. The monetary policy committee is meeting for the August monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. While Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra is expected to announce a pause in the latest meeting, voices in support of a further cut are rising. 

On to this week's newsletter!

Yesterday, Donald Trump once again trained his rifle on India, talking about the country's oil imports. He berated India for buying Russian oil for cheap but then also accused it of reselling this oil in the open market for "big profits". In addition, he said he will be substantially raising the tariff "paid by India", even though that is not how tariffs work. This was on top of the 25% tariff, plus an undisclosed penalty, on Indian imports that Trump announced last month. 

Previously, the European Union also raised questions on India's trade relations with Russia. 

For the first time since the Trump Tariff Tantrum began, India's Ministry of External Affairs has strongly responded to the allegations. The ministry said that India's energy imports are meant to ensure predictable and affordable energy costs to the Indian consumer. "However, it is revealing that the very nations criticising India are themselves indulging in trade with Russia," the statement read. 

The ministry went on to describe the EU's 67.5-billion-euro bilateral trade with Russia and US imports of uranium hexafluoride, palladium, fertilisers and chemicals. "The targeting of India is unjustified and unreasonable," the ministry said. 

This statement comes on the backdrop of increased trade uncertainty in India, with economists expecting the GDP hit to be in the range of 0.2-4 percentage points. India's dependence on Russian oil is at over 35% for the quarter ended June. So reducing or stopping these exports could have severe consequences for the country. 

With the monetary policy committee's deliberations ending on Wednesday, the broader pool of economists is expecting a pause. Out of 10 economists polled by NDTV Profit, six have estimated a pause; however, four are still expecting another 25 basis points rate cut. SBI Research's Soumyakanti Ghosh, who was the only economist to accurately predict RBI's 50 bps salvo in the June policy, is also expecting Governor Sanjay Malhotra to deliver a quarter of a percentage point cut.

Will India be able to strike a better deal with the US? A cohort of US negotiators is expected in India later this month to further discuss the deal. India has so far shrugged off any attempts to open up its agricultural sector to the US. The other issue is also going to be India's trade competitiveness when Vietnamese imports will only be charged a 20% tariff and Indonesia has signed a deal with 19% tariffs. 

The trade story is yet to see a definitive end. 

• ED is investigating Anil Ambani Group's Rs 17,000 crore fraud. The largest in the agency's history, Shrimi Choudhary reports.

• SEBI is mulling a special division to investigate cases like the Jane Street high-frequency trade, Charu Singh reports. 

• Rajiv Anand has his work cut out for him at IndusInd Bank.

• Exporters are seeking urgent help from the government on Trump's trade deal rhetoric.

• Tata Capital's IPO papers are finally public, Agnidev Bhattacharya reports.

A week after Tata Consultancy Services announced 12,000 layoffs at middle and senior levels, an employee at its Pune office has made a statement. Sourabh More, an employee of TCS Pune, was found sleeping on the footpath with a letter next to him. In this letter he alleged that he was fired and that his dues for the month of July were not paid yet.

Since he did not have any money to pay for a house, he has been sleeping on the road, he claimed. The company has clarified that More's case was linked to his undue absence. TCS had provided him with temporary accommodation, and the company was working on an amicable solution, it said.