Telecom Q4 Results Preview - Muted Quarter For Telcos: ICICI Direct

ICICI Direct Report

We expect Reliance Jio to lead subscriber addition with ~6.5 million net sub additions during Q4. Bharti Airtel Ltd. is likely to add modest ~1 million subscribers owing to SIM consolidation amid 2G base tariff hike.

On the other hand, churn at Vodafone Idea Ltd. will continue with subscriber loss of ~4 million. Average revenue per user growth is expected to be muted across telcos as upgrades benefits will be offset by lower number of days in the quarter.

We expect Jio, Airtel, Vodafone Idea’s reported ARPU to be up 0.6%, 0.5%, 1% QoQ at ~Rs 179, Rs 194, Rs 136, respectively.

For Jio, revenues are expected at Rs 23455 crore, up 2% QoQ. Airtel’s India wireless revenue is expected to witness 1.3% QoQ growth at Rs 19,606 crore.

For Vodafone Idea, we expect overall revenues to be down ~1% QoQ at Rs 10,519 crore.

For Sterlite Technologies Ltd., we bake in revenues at Rs 1852 crore, up ~17% YoY and down 1.6% QoQ. Sequential decline will be owing to lower services revenues.

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