While near-term net interest margin could decline due to policy rate actions and deceleration in MFI book, IDFC First Bank appears well placed to stage a rebound with >60% share of fixed rate loans and high-cost saving deposits. We maintain Buy with target price revised to Rs 80 (versus Rs 75 earlier), valuing the stock at ~1.3x FY27E adjusted book value (~1.2x earlier).
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ICICI Securities Report
IDFC First Bank Ltd. reported muted Q4 FY25 PAT of Rs 3.04 billion with RoA of 0.36%, impacted by elevated provisioning. Funded assets growth remained strong at ~20% YoY (5% QoQ). Deposits growth, too, was strong at 26% YoY (6% QoQ) with CASA growth of ~25% YoY. Reported net interest margin declined 9bps QoQ to 5.95% due to adverse loan mix, while cost of deposits was stable. MFI slippages, as expected, jumped but overall slippages were stable on improvement in non-MFI slippages (key positive).
Net non-performing asset (53bps) and provision coverage ratio (72%) were broadly stable QoQ. MFI slippages jumped but seem to have peaked out as SMA 0 improved sharply and collection efficiency for Mar’25 increased to >99% along with stable trends in Apr’25.
Overall, we believe RoA has bottomed out and expect 1% RoA by exit FY26E. Maintain Buy.
Key risks: Higher-than-expected slippages and slower-than-expected operating leverage.
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