Consumer Discretionary Q4 Results Preview - Soft; Green Shoots Visible In Value Fashion: HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities Institutional Equities

Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~13.1% YoY in Q4 FY24 (excluding jewellery: ~12%). Q4 is likely to be the last quarter contending with a high base.

Wedding season hasn’t been as upbeat as expected. Same-store sales growth across categories range between negative to positive single digits as ticket sizes and purchase frequencies continue to normalise downwards.

That said, green shoots in fashion can be seen in Q4 (albeit on a low base). We expect jewellery, food and grocery, paints, apparel, and footwear to clock ~16%, 20%, 2%, 23%, and 6% YoY in Q4.

Note: Organic apparel growth (excluding Trent) is expected to be sub-10%.

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