Blue Dart Express Q4 Results Review - Capacity Utilisation Picking Up; Outlook Bright: Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal Report

Blue Dart Express Ltd.’s revenue grew 8.7% YoY to Rs 13.2 billion in Q4 FY24 (in line). The company handled 0.29 million tonnes of cargo volume (+8.7% YoY). The realisation remained flat YoY at Rs 44.5/kg. It carried 91 million shipments in Q4.

Ebitda margin came in at 10.5% in Q4 (our estimate 10.3%). The margin was flat YoY and increased by ~80 basis points QoQ, mainly due to price hike by Blue Dart and improved utilization of newly added aircraft. Ebitda increased by 9% YoY to Rs 1.4 billion (in line). Adjusted profit after tax grew 8% YoY to Rs 761 million (our estimate: Rs 813 million).

In FY24, Blue Dart reported revenue of Rs 32.7 billion (+2% YoY), Ebitda of Rs 5.2 billion (18% YoY), and adjusted profit after tax of Rs 2.9 billion (-21% YoY). In FY24, Blue Dart carried 1.2 million tons of shipments (+4.4% YoY). Realization per kg stood at Rs 43.7 (-2.4% YoY).

Volumes are improving as new aircraft are stabilising and routes like Guwahati have been added to the network. As overall demand improves, a further pickup in volumes is anticipated in FY25 and FY26.

The standalone Ebitda margin has started to expand as capacity utilisation has improved and Blue Dart has shifted some volumes from third-party cargo to its own aircraft. We largely retain our estimates for FY25/FY26 and maintain Buy with a revised target price of Rs 7,860 (based on 20 times FY26E enterprise value/Ebitda).

With high capacity in place, Blue Dart is well placed to capitalize on the growth opportunity ahead.

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