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Motilal Oswal Report
Recap of CY23: Sharp divergence in the beginning, moderates by mid-year
CY22 ended with a sharp outperformance of banks over IT and the divergence stood at 47% between Nifty Bank and Nifty IT indices. However, since the beginning of CY23 (January-March 2023) banks started to underperform mainly due to the U.S. banking crisis, expectations of a moderation in net interest income growth and marginsfor Indian banks and weak foreign institutional investor flows.
Conversely, IT began to recover over a weak base of CY22 and anticipation of global interest rates nearing the peak.
During April-June 2023, however, the performance reversed again for both the sectors with banks reviving as the U.S. banking crisis receded, Q4 FY23 earnings exceeded expectations and there was a pause in monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of India.
On the contrary, weak earnings performance by IT companies erased all the gains in Nifty IT by April-23, resulting in the divergence between both these indices narrowing to ~2% by end of June-23 from the highs of ~14% in February-23.
Earnings of Banks spike faster than that of IT
Nifty Bank/Nifty IT constituents recorded a profit after tax compound annual growth rate of 14%/11% over FY13-23 while the indices grew 13%/17% during the same period. Over FY20-23, earnings for Nifty Bank and Nifty IT reported a CAGR of 39% and 10%, while the indices grew 34% and 37% during the same period, respectively.
In FY23, earnings for Nifty Bank constituents remained strong with ~38% YoY growth, whereas growth for IT constituents moderated to 7% YoY. The Nifty Bank and Nifty IT indices grew 21% and declined 26% in CY22, respectively.
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