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Motilal Oswal Report
Bajaj Finance Ltd.’s Q3 FY24 reported profit after tax grew 22% YoY to ~Rs 36.4 billion (inline), while 9M FY24 profit after tax grew ~27% YoY to Rs 106.3 billion.
Net interest income grew 29% YOY to ~Rs 76.5 billion (inline). Non-interest income grew 9% YoY, and net total income grew 25% YoY to ~Rs 93 billion (in line).
Q3 FY24 net interest margin (calculated) declined ~25 basis points QoQ to ~12.4% while the reported NIM contracted ~10 bp QoQ. We model a NIM compression of ~20 bp in FY25 due to the expected rise in the cost of borrowings and difficulty in passing on any further interest rate hikes to customers.
We model an assets under management/profit after tax compound annual growth rate of ~30%/27% over FY23-FY26 and expect Bajaj Finance to deliver an return on asset/return on equity of ~4.6%/23% in FY26.
Key monitorables for FY25:
the degree to which the NIM compression can be offset with operating leverage, resulting in a decline in cost ratios; and
the impact on B2C businesses, both from a growth and credit costs perspective.
Reiterate 'Buy' with a target price of Rs 8,500 (premised on 4.6 times FY26E book value per share).
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