Adani Energy is the second-largest transmission player in the country in bids. It is also a leading player in smart meter bids. Note that both the segments are seeing favorable tailwinds. As a result, we estimate Ebitda is set to rise from Rs 69 billion in FY25 to Rs 124 billion in FY27E. The strong increase is on the back of ~Rs 30 billion+ from new transmission project commissioning; ~Rs 20 billion+ from smart meter; and ~Rs 5 billion+ from distribution areas.
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ICICI Securities Report
Adani Energy Solutions Ltd. closed FY25 on a strong note. Its transmission pipeline is at Rs 600 billion (3.5x YoY); it won two new transmission projects in Q4 FY25 (worth Rs 50 billion), taking the transmission project wins to seven in FY25 (worth Rs 440 billion), including Bhadla–Fatehpur HVDC project worth Rs 250 billion. It reported a strong set of Q4 FY25 numbers – revenue was Rs 60.4 billion (+27% YoY), Ebitda came in at Rs 19.2 billion (+19% YoY) and profit was Rs 7.1 billion (+87% YoY).
Profit was aided by regulatory income of Rs 1.48 billion; adjusted profit was Rs 5.7 billion (+48% YoY). Distribution business continued its good performance with FY25 volumes up by 6%/44% for Mumbai circle (Adani Electricity Mumbai Ltd.)/Mundra Utility.
Adani Energy also has a smart meter pipeline of 22.8mn nos. with estimated Ebitda potential of Rs 22 billion. Adani Energy has given capex guidance of Rs 160– 180 billion in FY26 (versus Rs 114 billion in FY25). Retain Buy with a revised SoTP-based target price of Rs 1,127 (earlier Rs 1,101).
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