India's Week Of Wins: Earnings Beat, Brokerages Bullish And The World Cup — Talking Point This Week

India Women's team is in the World of Champions! What a gift for the country, and for Amol Muzumdar, the prodigy who could never play for India but bagged a World Cup as the coach of this team! In other news, UPI transactions crossed 20 billion in October, with October 18 recording the highest number of transactions at 754 million, hitting a fresh all-time high in daily volume. GST collections in October reached Rs 1.95 lakh crore, up 4.6% YoY. And high frequency indicators are trending well, with commentary from auto and pipe makers sounding positive. Are we looking at a strong Q3? Time will tell. In corporate news, the Enforcement Directorate froze Anil Ambani Group properties worth $853 million in a money-laundering probe. Beyond these, ISRO achieved a breakthrough with the successful launch of its heaviest communication satellite aboard the GSLV-Mk III "Bahubali" rocket from Sriharikota, enhancing India's broadcasting and telecom capabilities. So while there was varied newsflow in India, lets focus on the key talking points this week.

India Women's team is in the World of Champions! What a gift for the country, and for Amol Muzumdar, the prodigy who could never play for India but bagged a World Cup as the coach of this team! In other news, UPI transactions crossed 20 billion in October, with October 18 recording the highest number of transactions at 754 million, hitting a fresh all-time high in daily volume. GST collections in October reached Rs 1.95 lakh crore, up 4.6% YoY. And high frequency indicators are trending well, with commentary from auto and pipe makers sounding positive. Are we looking at a strong Q3? Time will tell. In corporate news, the Enforcement Directorate froze Anil Ambani Group properties worth $853 million in a money-laundering probe. Beyond these, ISRO achieved a breakthrough with the successful launch of its heaviest communication satellite aboard the GSLV-Mk III "Bahubali" rocket from Sriharikota, enhancing India's broadcasting and telecom capabilities. So while there was varied newsflow in India, lets focus on the key talking points this week.

News From The West

Donald Trump, in his recent summit with Xi Jinping, raised the possibility of a new world order headed by the two superpowers — a new 'G2.' The world believes he meant that they could, together, rule the world and decide what is good for everyone. Really! Also, when asked in a press conference about conversations with India, Trump said trade talks with PM Modi are "going good," praised him as "a great man," and signalled that he may visit India next year. He, for the first time, acknowledged that US consumers "might be paying something" when it comes to tariffs. That "something" has been pretty low so far this year, but is now rising, and economists reckon consumers will be eating around two thirds of the total tariff bill by next year! Additionally, we may even have shorter earnings season around the year, with SEC Chairman Paul Atkins proposed eliminating quarterly earnings disclosures in favour of semi-annual reporting. And in other global news, Amazon inked a $38 billion deal with OpenAI for Nvidia chips!

Interesting Perspective On US Indebtness!

From about 60% federal debt to GDP in 2007s, the same expanded to 120% to GDP in 2024. At the same time households’ debt as a percentage of the GDP fell from 100% to 69%, while non-financial corporate business debt remained at about 46% of GDP. This means, in the aftermath of GFC, the US federal government became the backstop for the US economy, while households and businesses repaired their balance sheets. Therefore, at this time, US businesses, households and state governments are sitting on one of the most robust balance sheets that they have seen in a long time. The same is not true for the federal government. But cumulatively, the narrative that the US, as a country, is witnessing a rapid deterioration in its debt profile fails the test of data!

The US debt situation at the federal level is stretched, but not yet dire. At the whole-economy level, the US debt situation is stretched but improving, not deteriorating. Hence, the biggest anti-consensus positioning from this standpoint is the return of “KING DOLLAR.” 

Earnings This Week

The Q2FY26 earnings season shows subdued trends in mass-consumption items but an uptick in select discretionary segments, with IT services demand coming out as modest and loan growth for banks looking quiet. Aggregate earnings, however, are ahead of most estimates, with cement, metals and OMCs driving the beat in print. This week, Titan Company led the highlights with a robust 25% YoY revenue surge and net profit jumping 43%, powered by strong festive jewellery demand and 60% plus growth in its studded segment. Bharti Airtel posted an 89% YoY leap in consolidated net profit, with ARPU climbing to Rs 256, driven by premiumisation and steady data usage growth.

Garden Reach Shipbuilders announced strong results with net profit more than doubling to Rs 99 crore on strong order execution in defence shipbuilding. Other notable results included Ambuja Cements' profit quadrupling to Rs 2,302 crore (aided by tax reversals), Tata Consumer Products' 11% profit rise, Lupin's margin rise to 33% and Adani Enterprises' 84% profit jump, while IndiGo widened its loss to Rs 2,582 crore despite 9% revenue growth. A clutch of smaller names like Linde India, Aarti Industries, GMM Pfaudler and Birlasoft also clocked in a strong Q2.

Brokerages On India

I cite two notes which are constructive on India. Must say, many others have been constructive on the earnings construct as well. But here's what HSBC and Morgan Stanley have to say. HSBC believes that after underperforming Asia by 30% in past 12 months, the worst is over for Indian equities. Recent flow data hints at growing interest among foreign investors, as per the brokerage and they believe that while concerns about high multiples deter many, they don’t see  it as much of a headwind after the recent correction. HSBC thinks earnings have bottomed in India, and expect to see a broad-based recovery in 2026.

Morgan Stanley says that the revenue, EBITDA, and net profit growth in their coverage universe stood at 8%, 12%, and 13% respectively, with the average EBITDA margin coming in at 23%, slightly higher than analysts' estimate. In the broader market (1,001 companies), the reported revenue and net profit growth of 9% and 15% YoY, respectively, and margin expansion of 84 bps is a decent performance. Ridham Desai believes India is at an inflection point and that the country has set up a base for growth to move up, subject to a few things like the trade issues getting sorted.

As we wrap, here's a take on the key insight from Morgan Housel's The Art of Spending Money. One can argue that the book reveals that wealth isn't just about accumulation—it's the art of intentional spending aligned with your deepest values, turning dollars into stories of joy and fulfillment. The core takeaway: Every purchase reflects what you truly prioritise, so experiment boldly to discover "your thing" (like travel or hobbies) while guarding against status-chasing or regret. Unspent money isn't loss; it's freedom to live on your terms. Ultimately, reshape your money mindset to enjoy wealth now, not just hoard it for later—because happiness compounds when spending serves your inner benchmark.

Until Next Time...

Niraj Shah