- Ray Dalio warns excessive debt in downturns triggers self-reinforcing economic cycles
- He highlights debt leads to money printing, inflation, declining living standards, and extremism
- Dalio links high debt to rising populism and political conflict over shrinking resources
American billionaire and hedge fund manager Ray Dalio has warned about the dangers of excessive debt during economic downturns. He said that history shows a clear pattern in such situations, warning against the United States' soaring national debt.
“History shows us that having too much debt during an economic downturn leads to a classic, self-reinforcing cycle where: The empire can no longer borrow the money to repay its debts,” he said on X on Friday.
Dalio explained that such circumstances push the regime to print more money, which devalues the currency and raises inflation.
“Living standards decline, leading to the rise of political extremism. Turbulent economic conditions undermine productivity and there is conflict about how to divide the shrinking resources,” the founder of Bridgewater Associates further noted.
History shows us that having too much debt during an economic downturn leads to a classic, self-reinforcing cycle where:
November 6, 2025
1) The empire can no longer borrow the money to repay its debts
2) It prints a lot of new money, which devalues the currency and raises inflation
3) Living…According to him, this creates an environment where populist leaders often rise. “Populist leaders emerge pledging to take control and bring about order,” he concluded.
His comments come amid the US facing mounting pressure to handle its debts under Donald Trump's administration. The country's national debt reached a record high by surpassing the $38 trillion mark in October, as per the Treasury Department data. The total debt stood at 324% of the country's GDP.
Earlier in September, Dalio had also warned that the US was approaching a “financial" edge. Speaking on a podcast with Scott Galloway, Dalio outlined, “This year the government will spend about $7 trillion and it will take in about $5 trillion. So it will spend 40% more than it's taking in… the debt is now about six times the amount of money it takes in.”
To address this issue, Dalio proposed a “3% solution”, aiming to reduce the debt from the current 6 to 7% of GDP down to roughly 3%. He said that achieving this goal would require a combination of a 4% increase in taxes and a 4% reduction in government spending.
“It wouldn't quite get you there,” he noted, adding that “but it would improve the supply-demand dynamics of the debt, helping interest rates to fall," he added.
His latest comments draw on insights from his 2021 book, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order. On Dalio's YouTube channel, a 2022 video explains the book's key takeaways, emphasising that a nation's greatest war is with itself, referring to the difficult decisions it must make.
Amid the record rise in national debt, President Donald Trump continues to claim that his policies are helping to slow government spending and will shrink the nation's massive deficit. From April to September, the cumulative deficit stood at $468 billion, PBS News reported, citing an analysis by Treasury Department officials.
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