What Comes After A Historic Gold Rally And Silver Swing? Experts Weigh In

After delivering outsized returns in 2025, gold and silver are no longer fringe portfolio hedges — they are increasingly being discussed as core holdings. The sharp rally has left investors asking whether 2026 will bring consolidation, correction, or another leg higher. Early bulls argue the forces behind gold’s rise are structural, not fleeting.

When gold was hovering near $2,950 nine months ago, Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, and private investor Naresh Katariya publicly flagged the possibility of prices pushing toward $4,000. At the time, the forecast sounded aggressive.

Yardeni says gold’s appeal has strengthened as investors reassess performance elsewhere. "A lot of investors who didn’t do well in 2025 have realised gold was the more stable place to be," he said, pointing to Chinese investors hit by property losses, volatile equity markets and persistent geopolitical risk as fresh sources of demand.

Central bank buying remains a key pillar, even if the pace has moderated. Katariya estimates disclosed purchases in 2025 at around 800-900 tonnes, slightly below the 1,000-tonne average of recent years. But official numbers may understate reality.

A report by the Financial Times, referenced by the experts, has suggested that a portion of central bank buying goes unreported. More telling, Katariya argues, is the shift toward physical control. India alone has repatriated over 300 tonnes of gold in the past five years, reflecting growing sensitivity to geopolitical risk and reserve security.

Despite India’s deep-rooted gold culture, global ownership remains low. Katariya contrasts Morgan Stanley’s CIO recommending a 20% allocation to gold with Goldman Sachs estimates that total US investor exposure stands at just 21 basis points.

Yardeni calls gold a 'sleeper asset' that investors ignored for decades in favour of stocks and bonds. That changed decisively after gold broke above $2,000 in 2024. He now sees gold potentially reaching $6,000 by the end of this year and even $10,000 by the end of the decade, driven by portfolio rebalancing rather than valuation metrics.

Silver’s path, however, may be less smooth. Commodity expert Anuj Gupta expects short-term volatility as global indices rebalance, potentially cutting silver weightings while increasing exposure to energy and industrial metals such as copper.

That said, Gupta does not expect deep corrections. He argues that rising allocations to industrial metals could indirectly support silver, given its role in manufacturing and electronics. While sentiment-driven pullbacks are likely, he expects silver to resume its upward trend after bouts of volatility.