Adverse impact on Indian markets due to the potential trade war after US imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico is unlikely, said Madhusudan Kela, market veteran and founder of MK Ventures. However, maintaining a good relation with the US in this backdrop is the prime requirement, to prevent the adverse spillovers into Indian markets.
Adverse impact on Indian markets due to the potential trade war after US imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico is unlikely, said Madhusudan Kela, market veteran and founder of MK Ventures. However, maintaining a good relation with the US in this backdrop is the prime requirement, to prevent the adverse spillovers into Indian markets.
Given India and US' relationship dynamics at present, and personal equation between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the US President Donald Trump, India is expected to do better. "I don't expect any real adverse impact of tariff to be imposed on India," Kela told NDTV Profit.
Trade wars are not good generally for global markets. It definitely squeezes the overall supply chain. However, now, it's a reality. Trade wars are knocking at the door, he said.
In case India manages to safeguard itself against tariffs, trade wars can be actually interesting for a lot of Indian businesses, as they could get the opportunity to attract more clients from the international markets. So, to some extend, India may benefit, Kela said.
"Say you're importing something from Canada, and put a 25% tariff on Canadian goods. Some of that may get replaced with exports from India, if it doesn't have that kind of tariff," Kela explained.
Madhusudan Kela, a market veteran and founder of MK Ventures
Madhusudan Kela, a market veteran and founder of MK Ventures
Overall Capex Allocated In Budget 2025–26
The capex number is not actually disappointing, according to Kela. In the budget, there are a lot of aids which have been given to state governments. That money gets invested further in capex. Including those aids and grants, the overall money is Rs 15 lakh crore, which is 15–16% higher than the last year number. It's a big distinction, the market veteran said.
Now, if one adds capex by the public sector enterprises, the number goes to as high as Rs 19 lakh crore, compared to Rs 17 lakh crore last year. "On the whole, even the headline numbers look 10%, the actual number is more like 15–16%," Kela said.
On all fronts, the budget delivered a good balancing act, he said.
Good Opportunity For Stock Picking In 2025
In last two-three years, there was a bull run. It's now going to be a bottom of stock-pickers' market because of the noise and volatility. It's time to focus on high-value stocks, which investors are thinking of trimming out of portfolios to get some value-based stocks. This year will give great entry points because of market volatility, Kela said.
There's for sure more value in large-cap stocks. A lot of large private-sector banks have done nothing in terms of returns. On the basis of MK Ventures' internal calculation, Nifty 50 is trading 18 times of PE multiple of next year, which is a discount to the long-term last 10 year average. So, there's clearly more value in large-caps, Kela said.
There'll be interesting opportunities in the mid and small-caps. The tilt clearly is more towards the large-caps for sure, Kela said.
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