'Tera Nifty All-Time High… Phir Bhi Mera Share Aadha': Vijay Kedia Hums On Current Market Dynamics

Ace investor Vijay Kedia summed up the market mood with a single lyric: "Tera Nifty all time high, phir bhi mera share aadha." Same song, same story, indicates Kedia. The index is hovering just a couple hundred points shy of its record high… and yet, for many investors, portfolios are still stuck at 50%. And the melody continues.

It’s playing out against a far more dramatic backdrop. The Indian equity market is at a crossroads: the Nifty is tantalisingly close to its all-time high, but the rupee’s plunge to a lifetime low near 89.5 has disrupted the bullish rhythm. As foreign investors turned net sellers and forex volatility spiked, the coming sessions will test whether the rally can withstand currency-driven headwinds.

The rupee crashed to 89.49 against the U.S. dollar on Friday, breaching its previous all-time low of 88.80. The 0.9% single-day fall — its steepest since May — was triggered by portfolio outflows, uncertainty over a US–India trade deal, and what appears to be the RBI stepping back from defending key levels. FIIs offloaded equities worth Rs 1,700 crore on Friday alone, underscoring how rupee weakness erodes dollar-adjusted returns.

Yet, equity bulls are still humming their tune. The Nifty gained 0.61% for the week to 26,068.15, and the Sensex rose 0.79% to 85,231.92, supported by optimism around India-US trade negotiations, strong Q2 earnings, and easing inflation.

But with the rupee's volatility and critical economic data around the corner, the next few sessions will determine whether the market can defy gravity or whether the currency storm will cap the rally just short of a new high.