History Favors Bulls: Nifty Has An 80% Win Rate When Diwali Falls In October

Technically, the Nifty 50 continues to trade within a broad symmetrical triangle, with prices inching toward its apex. This narrowing price action suggests that a directional breakout could be imminent in the coming weeks. On the upside, the 24,991–25,014 zone is expected to act as immediate resistance, being the confluence of the 20-DMA and the 50% Fibonacci level. A sustained move above this zone could extend the rally towards 25,200, whereas 24,740 is likely to act as near-term support.

The weekly RSI stands at 53.31, remaining neutral without any divergence against price. The MACD continues to trade below its signal line, indicating that momentum has yet to fully turn in favour of the bulls.

An interesting seasonal trend also emerges. Historical data since 2003 reveals that whenever Diwali — the festival of lights, colour, and fireworks — falls in October, the Nifty 50 has closed in positive territory 80% of the time. The only exceptions were 2008 and 2009. In October 2008, the Global Financial Meltdown roiled markets, while in October 2009, the RBI’s withdrawal of special liquidity facilities — introduced a year earlier to support banks, mutual funds, and NBFCs — signalled the start of monetary tightening, triggering volatility. On average, the Nifty 50 has delivered 0.74% returns in years when Diwali occurred in October.