Diwali 2024 To Diwali 2025: Silver Outshines Gold, Crude Gives Negative Returns

From one Diwali to the next, global commodity markets painted a contrasting picture. While precious metals glittered, energy prices dulled. Silver emerged as the top performer this Diwali, soaring 60% over the year to $52 per troy ounce, outpacing gold's 55% jump to $4,261 per ounce. The surge came on the back of strong investment demand and industrial use, particularly from the solar sector.

In sharp contrast, Brent crude oil slipped 17% to $61 a barrel, as global supplies remained elevated amid slowing demand growth. Industrial metals posted steady gains, with copper rising 12% to $10,604 per tonne and aluminium up 7% to $2,778 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange.

Among agri-commodities, coffee was the surprise outperformer, jumping 63% to $3.8 per pound, supported by tightening supply from key producing regions.

Equity markets across the world delivered strong dollar-denominated returns through the year. The S&P 500 climbed 17%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 11%, and Europe’s Euro Stoxx 50 advanced 25%. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 rose 23%, Hang Seng Index added 24%, and South Korea’s KOSPI led the rally with a 42% surge.

India, however, lagged global peers, with the Nifty 50 rising just 1.5% in dollar terms. Analysts attributed the underperformance to a weaker rupee, elevated valuations, and a moderation in earnings growth. Foreign investor flows were also diverted toward the US, Taiwan, and China, which offered better relative value.

Looking ahead to the new Samvat, analysts expect earnings momentum to strengthen in the second half of the fiscal. With the potential for one or two interest rate cuts, possible tax announcements, and short covering by foreign institutional investors, the outlook for Indian equities appears more optimistic than the year gone by.