Bull Run Over? Time To Book Profit In Gold, Silver, Says Goldilocks Research's Gautam Shah
Over a 12-month period, Gautam Shah sees Nifty 50 making a decent climb to 27,500, but believes mid-cap and small-cap stocks to emerge as the strong gainers.
While gold and silver prices have risen at an unprecedented pace in recent months, Goldilocks Global Research Founder Gautam Shah believes that the time has come to book profit.
"This is a good time to convert the paper profit into real profit. Aggressive profit booking is expected in gold and silver," Shah said, while speaking with NDTV Profit on Tuesday.
The market analyst's comments come in the backdrop of the precious metals cooling from their recent highs. The turnaround came on Friday, when silver slumped around 6% in the global market, and gold retreated by over 3%.
Accordingly, the prices eased in the domestic market as well, with silver futures at India's Multi Commodity Exchange declining 10% from their Friday's highs.
At 6:49 pm IST, gold was trading 3.47% lower at $4,205.3 an ounce in the US spot market, whereas silver was trading 5.02% lower at $49.76 an ounce.
"Last year, when I was asked this question (gold versus stocks) on Diwali, I said gold may give sharper returns. But this time, I would say that equities will make a strong comeback," Shah said.
The analyst is of the view that the time has come to "return to the Indian equities". Over a 12-month period, he sees Nifty 50 making a decent climb to 27,500, but believes mid-cap and small-cap stocks to emerge as the strong gainers.
Over the next 18-24 months, Shah sees Nifty reaching around 28,400 levels.
Shah's bet on equities over metals for the year ahead comes in the backdrop of gold and silver outshining stocks in the year that went by. From Diwali 2024 to Diwali 2025, silver gave returns of about 60%, and gold of about 56%.
Equity markets across the world delivered relatively lower dollar-denominated returns through the year. The S&P 500 climbed 17%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 11%, and Europe’s Euro Stoxx 50 advanced 25%. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 rose 23%, Hang Seng Index added 24%, and South Korea’s KOSPI led the rally with a 42% surge.
India, however, lagged global peers, with the Nifty 50 rising just 1.5% in dollar terms. Analysts have attributed the underperformance to a weaker rupee, elevated valuations, and a moderation in earnings growth. Foreign investor flows were also diverted toward the US, Taiwan, and China, which offered better relative value.
