Rupee Logs Worst Month In Nearly Three Years Against Dollar Amid Tariff Tensions, Oil Price Surge

The Indian rupee closed 17 paise weaker at 87.6 against the dollar on Thursday, extending its decline amid rising India-US trade tensions and firm crude oil prices.

The rupee opened the day on a subdued note at 87.69, weighed down by market jitters following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Indian exports and potential penalties for importing Russian crude and arms. Traders remained cautious throughout the session, with the currency fluctuating within a range of 87.25 to 88.

The rupee weakened 2.15% against the greenback in July, the sharpest depreciation since September 2022. It was also the third consecutive month of losses.

The sentiment remains fragile. Exporters should consider hedging, while importers may wait for intraday dips to cover positions, said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Adding to the pressure, Brent crude prices continued their upward momentum, settling higher. Concerns over supply disruptions due to secondary sanctions on Russian oil buyers have kept energy markets on edge.

Despite a slight pullback in the US dollar index to 99.77, the greenback remained near a two-month high, supported by strong U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s firm stance on interest rates.

Currency dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to intervene if the rupee approaches the psychologically significant 88-per-dollar mark, in a bid to curb excessive volatility.