US Consumer Confidence Rises On Outlook For Economy, Job Market

US consumer confidence increased in July as concerns eased about the outlook for the broader economy and the labor market.

The Conference Board’s gauge of confidence rose 2 points to 97.2, data released Tuesday showed. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 96.

A measure of expectations for the next six months climbed this month to 74.4, the highest since February, while a gauge of present conditions fell to a three-month low.

Consumer concerns about the broader US economy eased after President Donald Trump signed his budget megabill bill into law early this month that made 2017 tax cuts permanent and incentivized business investment. Even with the advance, the gauge remains below pre-pandemic levels as higher import duties risk keeping inflation elevated while the job market cools.

While some consumers were upbeat about the positive economic impact from the legislation, others expressed concerns, Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at the Conference Board, said in a statement. “However, the bill and its implications were relatively low on the list of themes that consumers were focused on in July.”

Meanwhile, the share saying jobs were hard to get increased to a four-year high of 18.9%. The share saying jobs were plentiful also rose but to a lesser extent. The difference between these two — a metric closely followed by economists to gauge the job market — was the smallest since March 2021.

Separate data Tuesday showed that job openings fell in June after jumping the previous two months, hovering at a level that indicates generally stable demand for workers.

Other surveys point to a continued slowdown in hiring and uptick in unemployment. Economists are projecting an acceleration in the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, as tariffs start to hit prices. 

Economists also expect consumer spending barely grew in June after adjusting for inflation, though a rising stock market helped lift consumer sentiment in the University of Michigan’s preliminary July survey.

The Conference Board survey also showed a pickup in the share of consumers who expect their incomes to rise in the next six months.

At the same time, buying plans for autos, homes and most appliances, as well as vacation intentions, fell in July.

The share of consumers expecting higher interest rates in the year ahead declined to a five-month low, according to the Conference Board.

Consumer confidence has largely retreated since the Trump administration initiated its tariffs strategy aimed at correcting trade balances, reshoring manufacturing, raising revenue and bolstering the national industrial base. 

Businesses have also struggled with rising input costs and uncertainty over trade policy. Results of the survey were collected on or before July 20, before the Trump administration announced trade deals with Japan and the European Union. Still, many US trading partners have a Friday deadline to reach a deal or face massive threatened increases in duties.