TSMC’s Profit Beat Estimates In Sign Of Pre-Tariffs Order Rush

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. posted better-than-anticipated quarterly earnings after customers scrambled to stock up on advanced chips in anticipation of global trade ructions spurred by US tariffs. 

The main chipmaker for Nvidia Corp. and Apple Inc. reported March-quarter net income of NT$361.6 billion ($11.1 billion), versus the average analyst estimate for NT$346.8 billion. TSMC reported a better-than-expected 42% revenue rise for that period last week, propelled in part by stockpiling of smartphones, laptops and other electronics in the US ahead of a potential trade war.

Investors are focusing more on TSMC’s 2025 outlook for revenue and spending, which its executives will outline later Thursday. The global tech sector is particularly nervous after a turbulent few days, when US restrictions on the export of Nvidia chips to China and a disappointing report from ASML Holding NV dimmed the outlook for semiconductors. Those two industry linchpins shed $200 billion in market value Wednesday.

For 2025, the market remains nervous about the impact of tariffs on the global economy and a sector that supplies critical components to just about every industry on the planet. Trump’s trade war is prompting economists to scale back their forecasts for GDP growth worldwide, casting doubt over the outlook for everything from iPhone demand to computing.

Even before Washington slapped additional tariffs on much of the world — only to roll them back shortly after — analysts had questioned whether big tech firms from Microsoft Corp. to Meta Platforms Inc. will continue to buy Nvidia chips at the same pace in 2025. The US chipmaker is TSMC’s largest customer after Apple.

Investors will also be looking for any change in spending plans following TSMC’s surprise announcement of an additional $100 billion US investment.

TSMC’s growth trajectory remains clouded despite ASML’s €1.2 billion in EUV (extreme ultraviolet) system orders in 1Q (an 83% rise year over year), likely fueled by TSMC’s capacity expansion and a low comparison base. US export restrictions impacting specific AI chips (e.g. the Nvidia H20) and potential semiconductor import tariffs are creating significant demand uncertainty for key TSMC customers like Nvidia and Apple, and these headwinds can still slow TSMC’s revenue growth and capacity-expansion plans. Charles Shum and Steven Tseng, analystsClick here for the research.

All the uncertainty has analysts wondering if TSMC will adjust its 2025 sales growth outlook of mid-20%. JPMorgan says the firm could pare that slightly to a low- to mid-20% expansion. Deutsche Bank AG said it may also just withdraw its guidance as customers adjust to tariffs. Many analysts have recently lowered their share-price targets on the company as well.

Semiconductor firms, which are highly sensitive to economic cycles, have borne the brunt of the market selloff this year. The benchmark chipmaker index has plunged more than 22% in 2025, compared with the S&P 500’s 10% slide.

The Taiwanese giant wasn’t spared. Its stock is down about 20% for 2025. It’s trading at roughly 14 times estimated earnings for the 12 months, below its three-year average of 16 times and lower than the multiple for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.