GST Rate Cut To Reshape India's Insurance, Lending Landscape: Brokerages Outline Mixed Scenarios

The proposed Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate cuts could have a nuanced impact on India’s non-bank financial sector, according to Morgan Stanley, which sees a "neutral to positive" outcome for insurers and a mixed short-term effect for lenders.

"If GST is reduced to 5% without input tax credit, insurers are likely to raise prices to offset the loss of ITC benefit," the brokerage said. "Thus, effectively, there is unlikely to be a material reduction in cost to consumers."

However, Morgan Stanley added that if the 5% rate is approved with ITC, it would be a "win-win for insurers and consumers", as the effective cost to the consumer could move lower, potentially boosting demand.

The note highlights that retail health and life insurance segments stand to gain the most, with SBI Life, HDFC Life, and ICICI Lombard among the key beneficiaries. "Improving affordability could increase the appeal of insurance to lower-income customers," it said, adding that up-selling and cross-selling opportunities to existing customers may be easier wins.

On the lending side, the impact is more complex. "Higher unit volumes will need to offset lower disbursal per unit," Morgan Stanley said, noting that near-term revenues could be hurt by demand deferral as consumers await clarity on new GST rates.

However, the brokerage sees a durable positive impact on asset quality and long-term revenue growth, especially if the reforms stimulate broader economic activity. The note also flagged potential risks for vehicle financiers.

"Used vehicle prices can drop given lower new vehicle prices," it said, though it added that the relative attractiveness of used vehicles may remain intact due to cumulative price hikes in new models over the years. Echoing similar concerns, Emkay Global said the structure of the GST cut will be crucial.

"A rate cut without ITC could be a minor negative," it noted, while a rate cut with ITC and no change in input rates would be materially beneficial. The most desirable scenario, Emkay added, would be a rate cut with ITC and lower rates on input goods and services, allowing insurers fungibility in utilizing input tax credit.