Venezuela’s Path To Elections Is Unclear After Maduro’s Removal

The US capture of Nicolás Maduro has upended Venezuela’s socialist leadership, raising questions about whether Vice President Delcy Rodríguez can take charge without triggering new elections, just as a new National Assembly takes over on Monday.

The complexities of having a president be suddenly whisked away to another country are now colliding with the intricacies of Venezuelan law and the political calculus for Rodriguez, who is trying to keep Maduro’s other lieutenants aligned while also managing how the US relationship will evolve.

Turmoil erupted hours after President Donald Trump stunned allies and adversaries by saying the US planned to “run” Venezuela — a declaration that came with few details about what it would mean for the oil-producing nation of roughly 30 million people.

By then, Maduro was already an indicted prisoner and in transit to New York, and Rodríguez had denounced the intervention as a “barbaric” kidnapping, even as Trump said she would partner with Washington to “make Venezuela great again.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is taking the lead on Venezuela inside the Trump administration, according to people familiar with the matter, told NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday that discussing elections in Venezuela at this point would be premature.

That raises questions about how closely, if at all, the US plans to support a transition established in Venezuela’s constitution, which could lead the country to elections within months or entrench an interim government backed by Washington.

Even as the Trump team’s understanding with Rodríguez remains unclear, “it would suggest that the US recipe is for a hybrid arrangement that maintains ‘acceptable’ Chavistas at the helm of certain institutions provided that they switch to uphold pro-US interests,” Teneo Managing Director Nicholas Watson said Saturday in a report to clients.

“While that may help avoid a dangerous power vacuum, such an ultra-pragmatic settlement centered on a figure with limited legitimacy may be difficult for many Venezuelans to accept,” Watson added.

Given the constitutional court’s decree on Saturday, there is confusion on whether a formal swearing-in ceremony in front of the newly established assembly will be required for Rodríguez, according to two lawmakers, who declined to be named to avoid repercussions.

Much will hinge on how authorities classify Maduro’s sudden removal from office. In a ruling issued Sunday, the court signaled it’s treating the situation as a temporary forced absence — a move that buys the government time but keeps the clock ticking.

Under a temporary absence framework, Rodríguez could exercise executive power for up to 90 days, carrying the interim period into April. Venezuela’s constitution allows for a one-time extension of another 90 days, which would push the deadline to July, at which point lawmakers would be forced to decide whether Maduro’s absence has become permanent.

If that threshold is crossed, the calendar accelerates. An absolute absence within Maduro’s first year into his most recent presidential term would require a new election within 30 days, opening the door to a vote as soon as August if the National Assembly moves to formalize his removal.

The new legislature is required to take office on Jan. 5, and the government says the session will go ahead despite political uncertainty. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López confirmed Sunday that the installation would proceed as planned.

Members of the new assembly were elected in an early vote on May 2025, amid widespread disappointment and fear among voters. Most of the opposition, led by Nobel laureate María Corina Machado, boycotted that vote, arguing it was an attempt to move on from the disputed July 2024 presidential election, in which the opposition says Machado’s stand-in candidate won by a landslide.

Still, a faction of the moderate opposition — including former governor and two-time presidential candidate Henrique Capriles — chose to participate in the parliamentary vote and a subsequent regional election. The group secured less than 20 seats, far below what would be needed to influence legislation. Another opposition bloc widely viewed as government-aligned secured 13 seats. The assembly has 285 members in total.

Further complicating the picture is that Venezuela’s constitution doesn’t explicitly account for forced absence or a president being captured by a foreign government, leaving room for political maneuvering as rivals and allies test how long the interim arrangement can hold.

That said, Venezuela’s constitution has been sidelined many times before. Emergency decrees, including one enacted this weekend, have allowed the executive branch to govern without constraints, raising the risk that the next steps — including the timing of any election — may diverge from the formal process.

Another concern, both for Venezuela’s government and the Trump administration, is security. “You do have an opportunity for violence,” said David Fitzgerald, a former chief of Latin America operations at the Central Intelligence Agency.

Noting the presence of armed militias loyal to Maduro and the regime, he flagged the need for the US to avoid a collapse in security of the type that led to brutal violence in Iraq after the removal of Saddam Hussein.

“That’s kind of an apple and an orange, and we’re not there yet,” said Fitzgerald, now a fellow at the University of South Florida’s Global and National Security Institute. “But that’s something I think that the administration needs to watch out for.”