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Nirmal Bang Report
Vinati Organics Ltd.'s Q3 FY24 Ebitda came in ~7% below our estimate led by continued destocking in ATBS and elevated pricing pressure across the portfolio.
The management expects recovery in ATBS starting from April 2024 and has guided for ~30% YoY growth in FY25. ATBS expansion project, after a delay due to market conditions, is expected to commission by December 2024.
While newly commissioned projects present a promising case for earnings acceleration, demand recovery and competitive intensity in AOs, MEHQ, Anisole, etc. remains the key. Also, incremental return on capital employed could be lower than the base portfolio, in our view.
Maintain Sell with a revised target price of Rs 1,500 (30 times earning price December 25E earnings).
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