While the medium to long-term outlook for the overall market remains positive, but may see volatility in the short run. Hence, Axis Securities recommends investors maintain good liquidity (10-15%) to use any dips in a phased manner and build a position in high-quality companies (where the earnings visibility is quite high) with an investment horizon of 12-18 months.
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Axis Securities Report
Prestige Estates - Potential upside 32%
Prestige Estates India Ltd. has set FY26 guidance targeting pre-sales of Rs 27,000 crore and a robust launch pipeline with Rs 43,000 crore in gross domestic value. The strong Q1 performance, particularly in NCR, establishes a solid base for achieving these targets.
Q2 launches are expected to contribute ~Rs 12,000 crore in GDV, and management remains confident of sustaining the sales momentum. The annuity portfolio is also expected to scale up meaningfully, with exit rentals projected to reach ~Rs 4,900 crore by FY30.
Lupin - Potential upside 26%
Lupin Ltd. is poised for sustained double-digit revenue growth in FY26, led by strong US market execution, new launches like Glucagon and Liraglutide, and a robust injectable and biosimilar pipeline.
While some loss of exclusivity in FY27 (e.g., Tolvaptan, Mirabegron) may create near-term volatility, management projects high single-digit to potential double-digit growth, supported by new approvals including Risperdal, Pegfilgrastim, and Ranibizumab.
Ebitda margins are expected to remain healthy at 24–25% in FY26, with further expansion in FY27, driven by premium product mix and continued cost optimisation. R&D spending will stay elevated (7.5–8.5% of sales) as focus shifts toward complex generics, 505(b)(2) products, and global biosimilar expansion.
Adjacency businesses are currently dragging margins by ~1% but are expected to break even by FY27, adding further upside to profitability.
Shriram Finance - Potential upside 22%
With demand buoyancy in the rural markets and healthy growth visibility across most of the segment, Shriram Finance is expected to deliver a consistent and healthy 15% CAGR AUM growth over the medium term. Net interest margins should find support from the easing of excess liquidity and the gradual downward repricing of cost of fund.
The opex structure continues to remain fairly lean, and improved productivity should drive a gradual improvement in cost ratios. The increase in GSII is transient, and the management is confident that most of it will roll back in the coming quarters. Thus, forward flow is expected to be minimal, keeping credit costs under control/ Shriram Finance is well-placed to deliver RoA/RoE of 3.0-3.2%/16-17% over FY26-28E.
Consistent growth delivery while maintaining asset quality alongside NIM improvement on expected lines should drive stock performance. At current levels, we believe the risk-reward is favourable.
Key risks:
Moderation in growth momentum,
Asset quality concerns cropping out.
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