PVR-Inox Q4 Results Preview - Much Worse Than We Anticipated: Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang Report

After Q2 FY24 turned out to be the best quarter in the Indian multiplex history, Q3 FY24 saw a sharp QoQ dip (despite a strong December 2023) and believe that the trend continued in Q4 FY24 on a QoQ basis as content (both Bollywood and Hollywood) was not strong enough to pull the audiences in.

While we were expecting a weak Q4 FY24 the numbers were likely much weaker. We believe that Q4 FY24 occupancy was likely ~21-22% compared to 32.3% in Q2 FY24, 25.2% in Q3 FY24 and ~22% in Q4 FY23. The key Bollywood movies for the quarter included ‘Fighter’ (~Rs 2.6 billion GBOC), ‘Shaitaan’ (~Rs 1.65 billion), ‘Article 370’ (~Rs 900 million) and ‘Teri Baaton Mein Aisa Uljha Jiya’ (~Rs 700-800 million). In the regional genre ‘Hanu-man’ (Telugu and Hindi versions) at ~Rs 1.65 billion and ‘Manjummel Boys’ (Malayalam and Tamil) at Rs 1.5 billion delivered strong numbers.

Hollywood content did not fire. ‘Dune: Part 2’ and ‘Kung Fu Panda 4’ delivered GBOC of ~Rs 350-400 million each. We had highlighted that due to the strike by Hollywood writers and actors, film production had come to a halt in H2 2023 and that would hit availability of Hollywood content in H1 2024.

We think this weak Hollywood content situation will continue in the June 2024 quarter too before improvement in H2 2024. PVR-Inox Ltd. has a much higher share (~50-70%) of Hollywood box office revenue in India compared to Bollywood (30-40%) and regional movies (10-25%).

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