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Motilal Oswal Report
Real gross domestic product growth came in much higher than expected at 7.8% in Q4 FY24 versus 8.6% (revised higher from 8.4%) in Q3 FY24 and 6.2% in Q4 FY23. The number is much higher than the market consensus and our expectation of 7%. Higher-than expected GDP growth was led by higher government consumption and a higher contribution of net exports.
Private consumption witnessed some improvement in Q4 FY24, as per our forecasts. In other words, robust growth in real net indirect taxes and higher discrepancies explained higher-than-expected real GDP growth.
For FY24, real GDP growth stood at 8.2% versus 7% in FY23, which is the highest since FY17, barring FY22. The annual growth number was also significantly higher than the market consensus and our expectations (of 7.9% each).
The major growth driver was real investment, which grew 9.4% in FY24 versus 5.5% in FY23. On the other hand, private consumption remained weak, up 4% in FY24 versus 6.8% in FY23.
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