ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, SBI Are Motilal Oswal's Top Pick In Bank Stocks — Check Target Price

The potential recovery in earnings in H2 FY26 will mark an end to the multi-year earnings deceleration cycle and help improve sector performance, adds Motilal Oswal.

Motilal Oswal recommends 'Buy' calls for SBI, ICICI Bank among others.

(Source: Gemini/AI)

The banking sector’s earnings growth has been increasingly driven by non-core treasury gains even as NII growth has decelerated significantly due to sharp loan repricing and elevated funding costs. For the brokerage's coverage companies, NII declined 1% YoY in Q1 FY26 (vs 16% YoY growth in FY24).

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Motilal Oswal Report

We continue to believe that net interest margins will remain under pressure in H1 and maybe in Q3 FY26, due to continued loan repricing. However, a gradual reduction in funding costs will enable margin recovery from H2 onward, translating into healthy earnings growth over FY27E. 

Banks are increasingly focusing on building granular and stable deposit franchises to cushion margin pressures and support balance sheet resilience. A strong liability profile is becoming a key differentiator in the current environment.

We expect systemic loan growth to remain modest at 11% in FY26E and recover to 12.5% in FY27E. The recovery will likely be led by the pick-up in consumption activity, aided by reduced GST and direct tax rates, normalization in unsecured delinquencies and a reduction in borrowing costs.

The potential recovery in earnings in H2 FY26 will mark an end to the multi-year earnings deceleration cycle and help improve sector performance.

Top ideas: ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, and SBI.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:

Motilal Oswal Financials Banks Sector Update.pdf
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Also Read: Dr. Agarwal’s Health Care, Eye Hospital's Merger Synergies To Drive EPS Accretion; Motilal Oswal Maintains Buy

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