The banking sector’s earnings growth has been increasingly driven by non-core treasury gains even as NII growth has decelerated significantly due to sharp loan repricing and elevated funding costs. For the brokerage's coverage companies, NII declined 1% YoY in Q1 FY26 (vs 16% YoY growth in FY24).
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Motilal Oswal Report
We continue to believe that net interest margins will remain under pressure in H1 and maybe in Q3 FY26, due to continued loan repricing. However, a gradual reduction in funding costs will enable margin recovery from H2 onward, translating into healthy earnings growth over FY27E.
Banks are increasingly focusing on building granular and stable deposit franchises to cushion margin pressures and support balance sheet resilience. A strong liability profile is becoming a key differentiator in the current environment.
We expect systemic loan growth to remain modest at 11% in FY26E and recover to 12.5% in FY27E. The recovery will likely be led by the pick-up in consumption activity, aided by reduced GST and direct tax rates, normalization in unsecured delinquencies and a reduction in borrowing costs.
The potential recovery in earnings in H2 FY26 will mark an end to the multi-year earnings deceleration cycle and help improve sector performance.
Top ideas: ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, and SBI.
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