Cement Sector Check - Tough Quarter As Industry Struggles To Maintain Ebitda/Tonne: Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang Report

The cement industry is predicted to grow by ~6% in Q4 FY24 and 9% in FY24, driven by persistent government investments in infrastructure, rural development and housing market growth.

Within our coverage universe, Ambuja Cement Ltd., Ramco Cements Ltd., JK Lakshmi Cement Ltd. and Dalmia Cement Ltd. are expected to witness increased volume in the upper teens.

Wonder Cement and Orient Cement Ltd. are expected to see double-digit volume growth outside our coverage.

While volume will drive the industry's topline growth in Q4 FY24, the effect of price declines will be offset by lower power and fuel costs. The sequential improvement in Ebitda/tonne might be ~Rs 0 to Rs 100/tonne owing to fixed cost absorption through higher volume.

Capacity utilisation levels for the industry are expected at ~72% in FY24 and FY25.

In FY25, Ultratech Cement, Adani (Ambuja plus ACC Ltd.), and Dalmia Bharat are expected to add 30 million tonnes per annum, 12 mtpa, and 7 mtpa, respectively.

This trend reflects the consolidation theme that pervades the Indian cement industry, with major companies increasing their market position via significant capacity additions.

Consolidation in the Indian cement sector is gaining momentum, with major players like Ultratech Cement and Ambuja Cement strategically acquiring capacities, driving their market share higher and fortifying their dominance while also eyeing stressed assets and greenfield initiatives for further expansion.

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