Ambuja Cement Q1 Review — Motilal Oswal Maintains 'Buy' On Above Estimate Results

Ambuja Cement posted higher-than-estimated Ebitda, driven by higher-than-estimated realization (3% above estimate). Consolidated Ebitda increased 53% YoY to Rs 19.6 billion (~8% beat), and Ebitda/t surged 27% YoY to Rs 1,066 (estimated Rs 1,002). Adjusted PAT after MI grew ~15% YoY to Rs 7.3 billio (inline).

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Motilal Oswal Report

Ambuja Cements Ltd.'s Q1 FY26 operating performance was above our estimates, driven by higher-than-estimated realizations. Opex/tonne was above our estimate, mainly led by the integration of Orient Cement from Q1, which had higher costs.

Going forward, the key monitorables will be: the company's profitability trend (as in the past few quarters, except Q4 FY25 and Q1 FY26, its Ebitda/tonne has seen higher volatility), timely completion of its ongoing organic expansions, and the benefits from group synergies.

We estimate the company's consolidated revenue/Ebitda/PAT CAGR at ~15%/29%/31% over FY25-27, aided by robust expansions (both organic and inorganic).

We estimate its Ebitda/tonne to increase to Rs 1,014/Rs 1,150/Rs 1,230 in FY26/FY27/FY28 vs Rs 794 in FY25. Ambuja Cement (consolidated) trades fairly at 21x/17x FY26E/FY27E EV/Ebitda and $158/$151 EV/tonne.

We value the stock at 20x Jun'27E EV/Ebitda to arrive at our target price of Rs 730. Reiterate Buy.

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